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Sam Houston

Bearkats · Conference USA

Head coach Phil Longo Year 1 with Sam Houston

Year-1 HCs (2015-2024) averaged -0.19 W vs SP+ expected · n=83

Season Projection · 2026 W0

10,000 sims
2.2
Expected wins
2-7
Proj record
0 to 5
Win range (90%)
#137 (133–138)
Final rank (90%)
0%
Make playoff
0%
Win conference

Path to Glory

Tap a win or a loss on each pivotal game to see how the playoff probability shifts. Leave any game unset to average across both outcomes.

Make the playoff

0%

Baseline projection.

  • vs Tulsa
    Home · Sep 12
  • vs New Mexico State
    Home · Oct 22
  • vs Middle Tennessee
    Home · Nov 21

Pivotal games are the 5 with the largest playoff-probability swing, ranked by the model. Math: chained Bayesian log-odds update from the conditional simulation set; gets the directionally right answer but won't perfectly capture cross-game correlations until the full Monte Carlo pipeline lands.

Returning production · 2025

41 PCI
  • Quarterback 40% (2/5 players)
  • Offensive line 50% (8/16 players)
  • Skill (RB/WR/TE) 48% (15/31 players)
  • Front 7 (DL/LB) 28% (10/36 players)
  • Secondary 41% (9/22 players)
  • Special teams 29% (2/7 players)

PCI weights returning production by position group (QB/OL heaviest). 70%+ is healthy continuity; 45-70% is a normal rebuild; below 45% is a meaningful turnover.

If QB1 is out (Hunter Watson)

GIE projects a 7.3 rating drop and a 29.1pp shift in playoff probability if Sam Houston loses its QB1 for an extended stretch. (n=5 historical samples; pooled across recent seasons.)

Situational efficiency · 2025

FBS percentile rank
  • 3rd-down conversion 22.5% 6th — bottom tier
  • Red-zone TD rate 13.7% 38th — below avg
  • 4th-down aggression 36.2% 50th — average
  • Late & close 4.5 yds/play 30th — below avg

Percentile is across all FBS teams with play-by-play data for the season. "Late & close" is yards per play in Q4+ with a one-score margin — a proxy for clutch offensive performance.

Schedule

Full 2026 slate. Tap a row for the matchup breakdown.

Latest Stories

  • Recap

    Sam Houston: 2025 Week 16 recap

    Sam Houston sits at 2–10 after a 56–16 home loss to Florida International in Week 14, a result that underscores the Bearkats' struggles this season. The team's GIE rating of –27.8 places them at 135th nationally, reflecting a roster that…

More coming

Per-team pages get the full treatment in Phase 3: current rating, season projection histogram, schedule with win probabilities, and live overlays on Pylon stream days. For now, this page exists so stories and news have a permanent home as content rolls in.