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2026 Week 12 · Conference game

Middle Tennessee at Sam Houston

Saturday, November 21, 2026 · 5:00 AM UTC

Elliott T. Bowers Stadium

Middle Tennessee
Conference USA
Record
0-0
Rating
-16.0
National rank
127
Proj. wins
1.0
Playoff prob.
0%
Sam Houston
Conference USA
Record
0-0
Rating
-27.8
National rank
135
Proj. wins
0.3
Playoff prob.
0%

GIE win probability

Headline numbers below. The 90% confidence band reflects rating uncertainty (±1.5 points per side); the model isn't claiming precision down to the percentage point.

Middle Tennessee
77%
Sam Houston
23%
Sam Houston 90% CI: 17% – 30% Δ rating 11.8

Middle Tennessee is the model's favorite at 77%. Sam Houston has a 23% path. Home-field adjustment of +2.0 rating points baked in for Sam Houston — venue-specific learned value (n=9 games).

Style fit

How each offense matches up against the opposite defense. Higher = the offense is expected to do well; mismatches show up here.

Middle Tennessee offense
48 / 100

Style-neutral matchup

Sam Houston offense
43 / 100

Style-neutral matchup

Weather at kickoff

Forecast not yet available — Open-Meteo provides a 16-day window. Check back closer to kickoff.

Game info

Kickoff
Saturday, November 21, 2026 · 5:00 AM UTC
Venue
Elliott T. Bowers Stadium
Conference game
Yes
Neutral site
No

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