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2026 Week 5 · Conference game

Texas Tech at Colorado

Saturday, October 3, 2026 · 11:30 PM UTC

Folsom Field

Texas Tech
Big 12
Record
3-0
Rating
18.5
National rank
13
Proj. wins
8.5
Playoff prob.
28%
Colorado
Big 12
Record
2-1
Rating
-1.2
National rank
72
Proj. wins
5.2
Playoff prob.
0%

GIE win probability

Headline numbers below. The 90% confidence band reflects rating uncertainty (±1.5 points per side); the model isn't claiming precision down to the percentage point.

Texas Tech
81%
Colorado
19%
Colorado 90% CI: 14% – 25% Δ rating 19.7

Texas Tech is the model's favorite at 81%. Colorado has a 19% path. Home-field adjustment of +7.9 rating points baked in for Colorado — venue-specific learned value (n=53 games).

Style fit

How each offense matches up against the opposite defense. Higher = the offense is expected to do well; mismatches show up here.

Texas Tech offense
42 / 100

Style-neutral matchup

Colorado offense
23 / 100

Style-neutral matchup

Weather at kickoff

Conditions
Overcast
Temperature
51°F
Precipitation
30%
Wind
5 mph

Game info

Kickoff
Saturday, October 3, 2026 · 11:30 PM UTC
Venue
Folsom Field
Conference game
Yes
Neutral site
No
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