2026 Week 5 · Conference game
Texas Tech at Colorado
Saturday, October 3, 2026 · 11:30 PM UTC
Folsom Field
Texas Tech
Big 12
- Record
- 3-0
- Rating
- 18.5
- National rank
- 13
- Proj. wins
- 8.5
- Playoff prob.
- 28%
Colorado
Big 12
- Record
- 2-1
- Rating
- -1.2
- National rank
- 72
- Proj. wins
- 5.2
- Playoff prob.
- 0%
GIE win probability
Headline numbers below. The 90% confidence band reflects rating uncertainty (±1.5 points per side); the model isn't claiming precision down to the percentage point.
Texas Tech
81%
Colorado
19%
Colorado 90% CI: 14% – 25% Δ rating 19.7
Texas Tech is the model's favorite at 81%. Colorado has a 19% path. Home-field adjustment of +7.9 rating points baked in for Colorado — venue-specific learned value (n=53 games).
Style fit
How each offense matches up against the opposite defense. Higher = the offense is expected to do well; mismatches show up here.
Texas Tech offense
42 / 100
Style-neutral matchup
Colorado offense
23 / 100
Style-neutral matchup
Weather at kickoff
Conditions
Overcast
Temperature
51°F
Precipitation
30%
Wind
5 mph
Game info
- Kickoff
- Saturday, October 3, 2026 · 11:30 PM UTC
- Venue
- Folsom Field
- Conference game
- Yes
- Neutral site
- No