Colorado

Buffaloes · Big 12

Head coach Deion Sanders Year 3 with Colorado

Year-3 HCs (2015-2024) averaged -0.10 W vs SP+ expected · n=21

Season Projection · 2026 W0

10,000 sims

3.3

Expected wins

3-8

Proj record

1 to 6

Win range (90%)

#105 (84–124)

Final rank (90%)

Make playoff

Win conference

Path to Glory

Tap a win or a loss on each pivotal game to see how the playoff probability shifts. Leave any game unset to average across both outcomes.

Make the playoff

Baseline projection.

vs Weber State

Home · Sep 12
at Baylor

Away · Sep 26
at Oklahoma State

Away · Oct 24
vs Kansas State

Home · Oct 31
vs Houston

Home · Nov 14

Pivotal games are the 5 with the largest playoff-probability swing, ranked by the model. Math: chained Bayesian log-odds update from the conditional simulation set; gets the directionally right answer but won't perfectly capture cross-game correlations until the full Monte Carlo pipeline lands.

Returning production · 2025

48 PCI

Quarterback 50% (3/6 players)
Offensive line 33% (5/15 players)
Skill (RB/WR/TE) 57% (17/30 players)
Front 7 (DL/LB) 45% (14/31 players)
Secondary 47% (9/19 players)
Special teams 67% (6/9 players)

PCI weights returning production by position group (QB/OL heaviest). 70%+ is healthy continuity; 45-70% is a normal rebuild; below 45% is a meaningful turnover.

If QB1 is out (Kaidon Salter)

GIE projects a -2.4 rating drop and a -9.6pp shift in playoff probability if Colorado loses its QB1 for an extended stretch. (n=3 historical samples; pooled across recent seasons.)

Situational efficiency · 2025

FBS percentile rank

3rd-down conversion 36.3% 45th — average
Red-zone TD rate 14.5% 48th — average
4th-down aggression 33.1% 33th — below avg
Late & close 3.4 yds/play 18th — bottom tier

Percentile is across all FBS teams with play-by-play data for the season. "Late & close" is yards per play in Q4+ with a one-score margin — a proxy for clutch offensive performance.

Schedule

Full 2026 slate. Tap a row for the matchup breakdown.

Latest Stories

Recap May 9, 2026

Colorado: 2025 Week 16 recap

Colorado sits at 3–9 after dropping a 24–14 road decision to Kansas State in Week 14, a result that reflects the Buffaloes' struggles throughout the season. GIE's current rating of –8.3 places them at 96th nationally, underscoring a…

More coming

Per-team pages get the full treatment in Phase 3: current rating, season projection histogram, schedule with win probabilities, and live overlays on Pylon stream days. For now, this page exists so stories and news have a permanent home as content rolls in.