Texas

Longhorns · SEC

Head coach Steve Sarkisian Year 5 with Texas

Season Projection · 2026 W0

10,000 sims

6.9

Expected wins

7-5

Proj record

4 to 10

Win range (90%)

#21 (9–40)

Final rank (90%)

15%

Make playoff

Win conference

Path to Glory

Tap a win or a loss on each pivotal game to see how the playoff probability shifts. Leave any game unset to average across both outcomes.

Make the playoff

15%

Baseline projection.

at Texas A&M

Away · Nov 28
at Missouri

Away · Nov 7
vs Ole Miss

Home · Oct 24
at LSU

Away · Nov 14
vs Ohio State

Home · Sep 12

Pivotal games are the 5 with the largest playoff-probability swing, ranked by the model. Math: chained Bayesian log-odds update from the conditional simulation set; gets the directionally right answer but won't perfectly capture cross-game correlations until the full Monte Carlo pipeline lands.

Returning production · 2025

60 PCI

Quarterback 60% (3/5 players)
Offensive line 70% (14/20 players)
Skill (RB/WR/TE) 59% (19/32 players)
Front 7 (DL/LB) 43% (13/30 players)
Secondary 79% (19/24 players)
Special teams 33% (2/6 players)

PCI weights returning production by position group (QB/OL heaviest). 70%+ is healthy continuity; 45-70% is a normal rebuild; below 45% is a meaningful turnover.

Situational efficiency · 2025

FBS percentile rank

3rd-down conversion 37.2% 52th — average
Red-zone TD rate 16.0% 65th — average
4th-down aggression 32.5% 31th — below avg
Late & close 6.1 yds/play 75th — strong

Percentile is across all FBS teams with play-by-play data for the season. "Late & close" is yards per play in Q4+ with a one-score margin — a proxy for clutch offensive performance.

Schedule

Full 2026 slate. Tap a row for the matchup breakdown.

Latest Stories

Stories about Texas will appear here as they're published. Check back during the season for analysis, hot takes, and game write-ups.

More coming

Per-team pages get the full treatment in Phase 3: current rating, season projection histogram, schedule with win probabilities, and live overlays on Pylon stream days. For now, this page exists so stories and news have a permanent home as content rolls in.