2026 Week 1
Texas State at Texas
Friday, September 4, 2026 · 11:00 PM CDT
DKR-Texas Memorial Stadium
Texas State
Pac-12
- Record
- 0-0
- Rating
- 2.3
- National rank
- 65
- Proj. wins
- 5.9
- Playoff prob.
- 0%
Texas
SEC
- Record
- 0-0
- Rating
- 16.2
- National rank
- 17
- Proj. wins
- 6.9
- Playoff prob.
- 15%
GIE win probability
Headline numbers below. The 90% confidence band reflects rating uncertainty (±1.5 points per side); the model isn't claiming precision down to the percentage point.
Texas State
10%
Texas
90%
Texas 90% CI: 86% – 93% Δ rating 13.9
Texas is the model's favorite at 90%. Texas State has a 10% path. Home-field adjustment of +3.7 rating points baked in for Texas — venue-specific learned value (n=62 games).
Style fit
How each offense matches up against the opposite defense. Higher = the offense is expected to do well; mismatches show up here.
Texas State offense
30 / 100
Style-neutral matchup
Texas offense
37 / 100
Style-neutral matchup
Weather at kickoff
Forecast not yet available — Open-Meteo provides a 16-day window. Check back closer to kickoff.
Game info
- Kickoff
- Friday, September 4, 2026 · 11:00 PM CDT
- Venue
- DKR-Texas Memorial Stadium
- Conference game
- No
- Neutral site
- No