College football, by the numbers · powered by GIE
4thand4cast — Daily college football rankings, projections, and analysis powered by GIE
Methodology · May 11, 2026
We ranked all 134 FBS teams in May. Here's what that's worth.
The 2026 Way Too Early Top 25 is live. Here's what makes up the number, what's deliberately missing, and what changes in August when rosters publish.
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Conference Preview · May 10, 2026
Big Ten 2026: front-runners, dark horses, and climbers
The Big Ten enters 2026 with a clear hierarchy but no coronation. Indiana arrives as the conference's presumptive favorite, though the model rates them slightly down from their national perch a year…
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Conference Preview · May 10, 2026
Sun Belt 2026: front-runners, dark horses, and climbers
The Sun Belt enters 2026 in a state of clear hierarchy. Two teams—**James Madison** and **Old Dominion**—have separated themselves as legitimate conference contenders, while the rest of the field fra…
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Conference Preview · May 10, 2026
SEC 2026: front-runners, dark horses, and climbers
The SEC enters 2026 with a familiar shape: a tight cluster of contenders at the top, a steep drop-off to the middle class, and a bottom tier that's still searching for footing. **Georgia** and **Ole…
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Conference Preview · May 10, 2026
Pac-12 2026: front-runners, dark horses, and climbers
The Pac-12 enters 2026 as a lean, eight-team conference with a clear pecking order and one dominant storyline: **San Diego State** is the class of the league, but the gap between the Aztecs and every…
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Way Too Early Top 25
Full rankings →Preliminary 2026 projection · directional only, full GIE projections land once rosters publish in mid-July.
- 1
IndianaBig Ten32.4
Rating
- 2
Ohio StateBig Ten31.6
Rating
- 3
Texas TechBig 1227.6
Rating
- 4
OregonBig Ten27.4
Rating
- 5
GeorgiaSEC25.6
Rating
- 6
Notre DameFBS Independents25.4
Rating
- 7
Ole MissSEC24.5
Rating
- 8
UtahBig 1222.2
Rating
- 9
MiamiACC21.7
Rating
- 10
Texas A&MSEC21.7
Rating
- 11
VanderbiltSEC20.0
Rating
- 12
IowaBig Ten19.7
Rating
- 13
WashingtonBig Ten18.9
Rating
- 14
OklahomaSEC18.8
Rating
- 15
USCBig Ten17.9
Rating
- 16
TexasSEC17.7
Rating
- 17
Penn StateBig Ten17.6
Rating
- 18
AlabamaSEC16.3
Rating
- 19
TennesseeSEC16.0
Rating
- 20
BYUBig 1215.6
Rating
- 21
MissouriSEC14.9
Rating
- 22
MichiganBig Ten13.4
Rating
- 23
SMUACC13.4
Rating
- 24
North TexasAmerican Athletic13.1
Rating
- 25
IllinoisBig Ten12.9
Rating
Underdog Watch
2026 Week 1Games where GIE thinks the underdog has a real, non-coin-flip path. Win probability shown is for the underdog. Tap a row for the matchup breakdown.
