College football rankings, projections & analysis · powered by GIE
4thand4cast — Daily college football rankings, projections, and analysis powered by GIE
Analysis · August 5, 2026
We ranked all 134 FBS teams in May. Here's what that's worth.
The 2026 Way Too Early Top 25 is live. Here's what makes up the number, what's deliberately missing, and what changes in August when rosters publish.
Read article →
Analysis · August 5, 2026
Our Way-Too-Early 2026 Top 25, Now That the Rosters Are In
Full rosters are in and GIE refreshed the board. The Top 25 barely moved — but the tier just below it got turned inside out.
Read article →
Analysis · August 5, 2026
The 10 Most Impactful Transfers of 2026 (and Why Only One Is a Quarterback)
The portal headlines went to quarterbacks. Our numbers say the biggest additions were pass rushers, ball-hawk safeties, and workhorse backs.
Read article →
Analysis · August 5, 2026
Your Labor Day Sleeper Is Tulane at Duke
Opening weekend is built for mismatches.
Read article →
Conference Preview · May 14, 2026
Sun Belt 2026: front-runners, dark horses, and climbers
The Sun Belt enters 2026 in a state of flux. **James Madison** and **Old Dominion** have separated themselves as the conference's most capable programs, but the model sees a steep climb for either to…
Read article →
Daily during the season. Weekly in the offseason. No spam.
Way Too Early Top 25
Full rankings →Preliminary 2026 projection · directional only.
- 1
Ohio StateBig Ten34.0
Rating
- 2
IndianaBig Ten32.3
Rating
- 3
Texas TechBig 1230.2
Rating
- 4
OregonBig Ten29.3
Rating
- 5
Notre DameFBS Independents27.6
Rating
- 6
Ole MissSEC26.7
Rating
- 7
UtahBig 1224.6
Rating
- 8
Texas A&MSEC24.1
Rating
- 9
GeorgiaSEC23.8
Rating
- 10
OklahomaSEC23.3
Rating
- 11
WashingtonBig Ten21.6
Rating
- 12
MiamiACC21.3
Rating
- 13
TexasSEC20.8
Rating
- 14
USCBig Ten19.1
Rating
- 15
BYUBig 1218.3
Rating
- 16
VanderbiltSEC18.2
Rating
- 17
IowaBig Ten17.9
Rating
- 18
Penn StateBig Ten17.1
Rating
- 19
SMUACC16.8
Rating
- 20
TennesseeSEC16.0
Rating
- 21
ArizonaBig 1214.3
Rating
- 22
MichiganBig Ten13.7
Rating
- 23
AlabamaSEC13.1
Rating
- 24
MissouriSEC12.8
Rating
- 25
IllinoisBig Ten11.6
Rating
Underdog Watch
2026 Week 1Games where GIE thinks the underdog has a real, non-coin-flip path. Win probability shown is for the underdog. Tap a row for the matchup breakdown.
