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Oklahoma

Sooners · SEC

Head coach Brent Venables Year 4 with Oklahoma

Year-4 HCs (2015-2024) averaged -0.65 W vs SP+ expected · n=59

Season Projection · 2026 W0

10,000 sims
7.6
Expected wins
8-4
Proj record
4 to 11
Win range (90%)
#17 (7–34)
Final rank (90%)
27%
Make playoff
6%
Win conference

Path to Glory

Tap a win or a loss on each pivotal game to see how the playoff probability shifts. Leave any game unset to average across both outcomes.

Make the playoff

27%

Baseline projection.

  • vs Texas A&M
    Home · Nov 21
  • at Missouri
    Away · Nov 28
  • vs Ole Miss
    Home · Nov 14
  • at Georgia
    Away · Sep 26
  • at Florida
    Away · Nov 7

Pivotal games are the 5 with the largest playoff-probability swing, ranked by the model. Math: chained Bayesian log-odds update from the conditional simulation set; gets the directionally right answer but won't perfectly capture cross-game correlations until the full Monte Carlo pipeline lands.

Returning production · 2025

42 PCI
  • Quarterback 20% (1/5 players)
  • Offensive line 50% (10/20 players)
  • Skill (RB/WR/TE) 56% (19/34 players)
  • Front 7 (DL/LB) 58% (19/33 players)
  • Secondary 48% (12/25 players)
  • Special teams 25% (2/8 players)

PCI weights returning production by position group (QB/OL heaviest). 70%+ is healthy continuity; 45-70% is a normal rebuild; below 45% is a meaningful turnover.

If QB1 is out (John Mateer)

GIE projects a 7.1 rating drop and a 28.5pp shift in playoff probability if Oklahoma loses its QB1 for an extended stretch. (n=1 historical samples; pooled across recent seasons.)

Situational efficiency · 2025

FBS percentile rank
  • 3rd-down conversion 38.7% 63th — average
  • Red-zone TD rate 17.6% 76th — strong
  • 4th-down aggression 34.4% 40th — below avg
  • Late & close 6.1 yds/play 76th — strong

Percentile is across all FBS teams with play-by-play data for the season. "Late & close" is yards per play in Q4+ with a one-score margin — a proxy for clutch offensive performance.

Schedule

Full 2026 slate. Tap a row for the matchup breakdown.

Latest Stories

  • Recap

    Oklahoma: 2025 Week 16 recap

    Oklahoma sits at 14th in the latest GIE rankings with a 10–3 record and a rating of 18.3. The Sooners' most recent outing was a defensive grind against LSU two weeks back, a 17–13 home win that underscored their ability to win tight…

More coming

Per-team pages get the full treatment in Phase 3: current rating, season projection histogram, schedule with win probabilities, and live overlays on Pylon stream days. For now, this page exists so stories and news have a permanent home as content rolls in.