2026 Week 1
Memphis at UNLV
Friday, August 28, 2026 · 11:00 PM CDT
Allegiant Stadium
Memphis
American Athletic
- Record
- 0-0
- Rating
- 7.6
- National rank
- 39
- Proj. wins
- 7.6
- Playoff prob.
- 2%
UNLV
Mountain West
- Record
- 0-0
- Rating
- 4.3
- National rank
- 57
- Proj. wins
- 7.6
- Playoff prob.
- 0%
GIE win probability
Headline numbers below. The 90% confidence band reflects rating uncertainty (±1.5 points per side); the model isn't claiming precision down to the percentage point.
Memphis
55%
UNLV
45%
UNLV 90% CI: 36% – 54% Δ rating 3.3
Memphis is the model's favorite at 55%. UNLV has a 45% path. Home-field adjustment of +1.6 rating points baked in for UNLV — venue-specific learned value (n=29 games).
Style fit
How each offense matches up against the opposite defense. Higher = the offense is expected to do well; mismatches show up here.
Memphis offense
43 / 100
Style-neutral matchup
UNLV offense
37 / 100
Style-neutral matchup
Weather at kickoff
Forecast not yet available — Open-Meteo provides a 16-day window. Check back closer to kickoff.
Game info
- Kickoff
- Friday, August 28, 2026 · 11:00 PM CDT
- Venue
- Allegiant Stadium
- Conference game
- No
- Neutral site
- No