UNLV

Rebels · Mountain West

Head coach Dan Mullen Year 1 with UNLV

Year-1 HCs (2015-2024) averaged -0.19 W vs SP+ expected · n=83

Season Projection · 2026 W0

10,000 sims

7.7

Expected wins

8-4

Proj record

4 to 11

Win range (90%)

#54 (31–81)

Final rank (90%)

Make playoff

30%

Win conference

Path to Glory

Tap a win or a loss on each pivotal game to see how the playoff probability shifts. Leave any game unset to average across both outcomes.

Make the playoff

Baseline projection.

at North Texas

Away · Sep 12
at New Mexico

Away · Nov 15
at Hawai'i

Away · Sep 6
at Air Force

Away · Oct 17
vs Memphis

Home · Aug 30

Pivotal games are the 5 with the largest playoff-probability swing, ranked by the model. Math: chained Bayesian log-odds update from the conditional simulation set; gets the directionally right answer but won't perfectly capture cross-game correlations until the full Monte Carlo pipeline lands.

Returning production · 2025

36 PCI

Quarterback 40% (2/5 players)
Offensive line 35% (7/20 players)
Skill (RB/WR/TE) 36% (10/28 players)
Front 7 (DL/LB) 34% (10/29 players)
Secondary 32% (7/22 players)
Special teams 33% (3/9 players)

PCI weights returning production by position group (QB/OL heaviest). 70%+ is healthy continuity; 45-70% is a normal rebuild; below 45% is a meaningful turnover.

Situational efficiency · 2025

FBS percentile rank

3rd-down conversion 41.4% 77th — strong
Red-zone TD rate 19.1% 85th — strong
4th-down aggression 35.4% 46th — average
Late & close 6.5 yds/play 82th — strong

Percentile is across all FBS teams with play-by-play data for the season. "Late & close" is yards per play in Q4+ with a one-score margin — a proxy for clutch offensive performance.

Schedule

Full 2026 slate. Tap a row for the matchup breakdown.

Latest Stories

Stories about UNLV will appear here as they're published. Check back during the season for analysis, hot takes, and game write-ups.

More coming

Per-team pages get the full treatment in Phase 3: current rating, season projection histogram, schedule with win probabilities, and live overlays on Pylon stream days. For now, this page exists so stories and news have a permanent home as content rolls in.