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UNLV

Rebels · Mountain West

Head coach Dan Mullen Year 2 with UNLV

Year-2 HCs (2015-2024) averaged +0.09 W vs. preseason expectation

Season Projection · 2026 W0

10,000 sims
7.6
Expected wins
8-4
Proj record
4 to 11
Win range (90%)
#54 (31–81)
Final rank (90%)
0%
Make playoff
29%
Win conference

Path to Glory

Tap a win or a loss on each pivotal game to see how the playoff probability shifts. Leave any game unset to average across both outcomes.

Make the playoff

0%

Baseline projection.

  • at North Texas
    Away · Sep 12
  • at Hawai'i
    Away · Sep 6
  • at New Mexico
    Away · Nov 15
  • at Air Force
    Away · Oct 17
  • vs North Dakota State
    Home · Oct 10

Pivotal games are the 5 with the largest playoff-probability swing, ranked by the model. Math: chained Bayesian log-odds update from the conditional simulation set; gets the directionally right answer but won't perfectly capture cross-game correlations until the full Monte Carlo pipeline lands.

Returning production · 2026

55 score
  • Quarterback 3% (3/5 )
  • Offensive line 100% (17/17 players)
  • Skill (RB/WR/TE) 73% (25/27 )
  • Front 7 (DL/LB) 77% (29/31 )
  • Secondary 64% (17/22 )
  • Special teams 24% (5/8 )

Share of last season's production each unit returns. Higher means more continuity: 70%+ is healthy, 45–70% a normal rebuild, under 45% a major turnover.

Portal additions · 2026

-0.6 rating

19 proven transfers in, carrying the production below from their prior school.

  • Taz Reddicks WR ← Oregon State 72 impact
  • Jackson Arnold QB ← Auburn 67 impact
  • Landyn Cleveland S ← Oklahoma State 49 impact
  • Amorion Walker WR ← Middle Tennessee 37 impact
  • Tony-Louis Nkuba DB ← Arizona State 25 impact
  • Mark Iheanachor LB ← SMU 17 impact

Impact scores offensive skill additions (QB/RB/WR/TE) — prior-season production normalized within position (100 ≈ a 90th-percentile producer at that spot) and discounted for non-FBS competition, so a top back counts alongside a top quarterback. Defensive and O-line additions count as transfers but aren't box-score measurable, so they carry no impact score. The rating figure is this class's portal contribution vs. the FBS average, capped at ±2.5.

Situational efficiency · 2025

FBS percentile rank
  • 3rd-down conversion 41.4% 77th — strong
  • Red-zone TD rate 19.1% 85th — strong
  • 4th-down aggression 35.4% 46th — average
  • Late & close 6.5 yds/play 82th — strong

Percentile is across all FBS teams with play-by-play data for the season. "Late & close" is yards per play in Q4+ with a one-score margin — a proxy for clutch offensive performance.

More coming

Per-team pages get the full treatment in Phase 3: current rating, season projection histogram, schedule with win probabilities, and live overlays on Pylon stream days. For now, this page exists so stories and news have a permanent home as content rolls in.