UNLV
Rebels · Mountain West
Year-2 HCs (2015-2024) averaged +0.09 W vs. preseason expectation
Season Projection · 2026 W0
10,000 simsPath to Glory
Tap a win or a loss on each pivotal game to see how the playoff probability shifts. Leave any game unset to average across both outcomes.
Make the playoff
0%
Baseline projection.
-
at North TexasAway · Sep 12 -
at Hawai'iAway · Sep 6 -
at New MexicoAway · Nov 15 -
at Air ForceAway · Oct 17 -
vs North Dakota StateHome · Oct 10
Pivotal games are the 5 with the largest playoff-probability swing, ranked by the model. Math: chained Bayesian log-odds update from the conditional simulation set; gets the directionally right answer but won't perfectly capture cross-game correlations until the full Monte Carlo pipeline lands.
Returning production · 2026
- Quarterback 3% (3/5 )
- Offensive line 100% (17/17 players)
- Skill (RB/WR/TE) 73% (25/27 )
- Front 7 (DL/LB) 77% (29/31 )
- Secondary 64% (17/22 )
- Special teams 24% (5/8 )
Share of last season's production each unit returns. Higher means more continuity: 70%+ is healthy, 45–70% a normal rebuild, under 45% a major turnover.
Portal additions · 2026
19 proven transfers in, carrying the production below from their prior school.
- Taz Reddicks WR ← Oregon State 72 impact
- Jackson Arnold QB ← Auburn 67 impact
- Landyn Cleveland S ← Oklahoma State 49 impact
- Amorion Walker WR ← Middle Tennessee 37 impact
- Tony-Louis Nkuba DB ← Arizona State 25 impact
- Mark Iheanachor LB ← SMU 17 impact
Impact scores offensive skill additions (QB/RB/WR/TE) — prior-season production normalized within position (100 ≈ a 90th-percentile producer at that spot) and discounted for non-FBS competition, so a top back counts alongside a top quarterback. Defensive and O-line additions count as transfers but aren't box-score measurable, so they carry no impact score. The rating figure is this class's portal contribution vs. the FBS average, capped at ±2.5.
Situational efficiency · 2025
FBS percentile rank- 3rd-down conversion 41.4% 77th — strong
- Red-zone TD rate 19.1% 85th — strong
- 4th-down aggression 35.4% 46th — average
- Late & close 6.5 yds/play 82th — strong
Percentile is across all FBS teams with play-by-play data for the season. "Late & close" is yards per play in Q4+ with a one-score margin — a proxy for clutch offensive performance.
Schedule
Full 2026 slate. Tap a row for the matchup breakdown.
- Wk 1Aug 30
vsMemphisAmerican Athletic48%Win prob - Wk 1Sep 6
atHawai'iMountain West50%Win prob - Wk 2Sep 12
atNorth TexasAmerican Athletic18%Win prob - Wk 4Sep 26
atAkronMid-American88%Win prob - Wk 5Oct 3
vsCaliforniaACC78%Win prob - Wk 6Oct 10
vsNorth Dakota StateMountain West— - Wk 7Oct 17
atAir ForceMountain West65%Win prob - Wk 9Nov 1
vsNorthern IllinoisMountain West95%Win prob - Wk 10Nov 8
vsWyomingMountain West91%Win prob - Wk 11Nov 15
atNew MexicoMountain West53%Win prob - Wk 12Nov 22
atSan José StateMountain West88%Win prob - Wk 13Nov 29
vsNevadaMountain West93%Win prob
Latest Stories
More coming
Per-team pages get the full treatment in Phase 3: current rating, season projection histogram, schedule with win probabilities, and live overlays on Pylon stream days. For now, this page exists so stories and news have a permanent home as content rolls in.