2026 Week 6 · Conference game
North Dakota State at UNLV
Saturday, October 10, 2026 · 11:00 PM UTC
Allegiant Stadium
North Dakota State
Mountain West
- Record
- 4-0
- Rating
- 10.6
- National rank
- 35
- Proj. wins
- 10.2
- Playoff prob.
- 58%
UNLV
Mountain West
- Record
- 1-2
- Rating
- -3.3
- National rank
- 84
- Proj. wins
- 5.1
- Playoff prob.
- 0%
GIE win probability
Headline numbers below. The 90% confidence band reflects rating uncertainty (±1.5 points per side); the model isn't claiming precision down to the percentage point.
North Dakota State
82%
UNLV
18%
UNLV 90% CI: 13% – 24% Δ rating 13.9
North Dakota State is the model's favorite at 82%. UNLV has a 18% path. Home-field adjustment of +1.6 rating points baked in for UNLV — venue-specific learned value (n=29 games).
Style fit
How each offense matches up against the opposite defense. Higher = the offense is expected to do well; mismatches show up here.
North Dakota State offense
42 / 100
Style-neutral matchup
UNLV offense
26 / 100
Style-neutral matchup
Weather at kickoff
Conditions
Unknown
Temperature
0°F
Precipitation
6%
Wind
0 mph
Game info
- Kickoff
- Saturday, October 10, 2026 · 11:00 PM UTC
- Venue
- Allegiant Stadium
- Conference game
- Yes
- Neutral site
- No