UTSA

Roadrunners · American Athletic

Head coach Jeff Traylor Year 6 with UTSA

Season Projection · 2026 W0

10,000 sims

6.8

Expected wins

7-5

Proj record

4 to 10

Win range (90%)

#57 (32–86)

Final rank (90%)

Make playoff

Win conference

Path to Glory

Tap a win or a loss on each pivotal game to see how the playoff probability shifts. Leave any game unset to average across both outcomes.

Make the playoff

Baseline projection.

vs South Florida

Home · Oct 8
vs North Texas

Home · Nov 14
at Tulane

Away · Oct 24
at Texas State

Away · Sep 12
vs Navy

Home · Oct 17

Pivotal games are the 5 with the largest playoff-probability swing, ranked by the model. Math: chained Bayesian log-odds update from the conditional simulation set; gets the directionally right answer but won't perfectly capture cross-game correlations until the full Monte Carlo pipeline lands.

Returning production · 2025

57 PCI

Quarterback 40% (2/5 players)
Offensive line 75% (15/20 players)
Skill (RB/WR/TE) 61% (19/31 players)
Front 7 (DL/LB) 67% (26/39 players)
Secondary 65% (11/17 players)
Special teams 33% (2/6 players)

PCI weights returning production by position group (QB/OL heaviest). 70%+ is healthy continuity; 45-70% is a normal rebuild; below 45% is a meaningful turnover.

Situational efficiency · 2025

FBS percentile rank

3rd-down conversion 40.5% 72th — strong
Red-zone TD rate 20.7% 90th — elite
4th-down aggression 35.5% 47th — average
Late & close 4.7 yds/play 39th — below avg

Percentile is across all FBS teams with play-by-play data for the season. "Late & close" is yards per play in Q4+ with a one-score margin — a proxy for clutch offensive performance.

Schedule

Full 2026 slate. Tap a row for the matchup breakdown.

Latest Stories

Stories about UTSA will appear here as they're published. Check back during the season for analysis, hot takes, and game write-ups.

More coming

Per-team pages get the full treatment in Phase 3: current rating, season projection histogram, schedule with win probabilities, and live overlays on Pylon stream days. For now, this page exists so stories and news have a permanent home as content rolls in.