2026 Week 11 · Conference game
North Texas at UTSA
Saturday, November 14, 2026 · 5:00 AM UTC
Alamodome
North Texas
American Athletic
- Record
- 1-2
- Rating
- -9.2
- National rank
- 105
- Proj. wins
- 5.5
- Playoff prob.
- 0%
UTSA
American Athletic
- Record
- 2-1
- Rating
- -1.4
- National rank
- 74
- Proj. wins
- 7.1
- Playoff prob.
- 0%
GIE win probability
Headline numbers below. The 90% confidence band reflects rating uncertainty (±1.5 points per side); the model isn't claiming precision down to the percentage point.
North Texas
18%
UTSA
82%
UTSA 90% CI: 76% – 87% Δ rating 7.8
UTSA is the model's favorite at 82%. North Texas has a 18% path. Home-field adjustment of +4.4 rating points baked in for UTSA — venue-specific learned value (n=52 games).
Style fit
How each offense matches up against the opposite defense. Higher = the offense is expected to do well; mismatches show up here.
North Texas offense
39 / 100
Style-neutral matchup
UTSA offense
38 / 100
Style-neutral matchup
Weather at kickoff
Forecast not yet available — Open-Meteo provides a 16-day window. Check back closer to kickoff.
Game info
- Kickoff
- Saturday, November 14, 2026 · 5:00 AM UTC
- Venue
- Alamodome
- Conference game
- Yes
- Neutral site
- No