Texas State

Bobcats · Pac-12

Head coach G.J. Kinne Year 3 with Texas State

Year-3 HCs (2015-2024) averaged -0.10 W vs SP+ expected · n=21

Season Projection · 2026 W0

10,000 sims

5.9

Expected wins

6-5

Proj record

3 to 9

Win range (90%)

#64 (39–90)

Final rank (90%)

Make playoff

12%

Win conference

Path to Glory

Tap a win or a loss on each pivotal game to see how the playoff probability shifts. Leave any game unset to average across both outcomes.

Make the playoff

Baseline projection.

at San Diego State

Away · Oct 4
vs North Texas

Home · Sep 20
at Boise State

Away · Nov 1
vs UTSA

Home · Sep 12
vs Washington State

Home · Nov 21

Pivotal games are the 5 with the largest playoff-probability swing, ranked by the model. Math: chained Bayesian log-odds update from the conditional simulation set; gets the directionally right answer but won't perfectly capture cross-game correlations until the full Monte Carlo pipeline lands.

Returning production · 2025

33 PCI

Quarterback 20% (1/5 players)
Offensive line 53% (10/19 players)
Skill (RB/WR/TE) 34% (11/32 players)
Front 7 (DL/LB) 33% (10/30 players)
Secondary 38% (9/24 players)
Special teams 22% (2/9 players)

PCI weights returning production by position group (QB/OL heaviest). 70%+ is healthy continuity; 45-70% is a normal rebuild; below 45% is a meaningful turnover.

Situational efficiency · 2025

FBS percentile rank

3rd-down conversion 41.8% 79th — strong
Red-zone TD rate 13.6% 37th — below avg
4th-down aggression 46.7% 90th — elite
Late & close 6.3 yds/play 80th — strong

Percentile is across all FBS teams with play-by-play data for the season. "Late & close" is yards per play in Q4+ with a one-score margin — a proxy for clutch offensive performance.

Schedule

Full 2026 slate. Tap a row for the matchup breakdown.

Latest Stories

Stories about Texas State will appear here as they're published. Check back during the season for analysis, hot takes, and game write-ups.

More coming

Per-team pages get the full treatment in Phase 3: current rating, season projection histogram, schedule with win probabilities, and live overlays on Pylon stream days. For now, this page exists so stories and news have a permanent home as content rolls in.