Texas State

Year-4 HCs (2015-2024) averaged -0.65 W vs. preseason expectation

• Quarterback 99% (2/5 )
• Offensive line 58% (11/19 players)
• Skill (RB/WR/TE) 55% (18/29 )
• Front 7 (DL/LB) 33% (15/33 )
• Secondary 42% (12/19 )
• Special teams 0% (3/7 )

Share of last season's production each unit returns. Higher means more continuity: 70%+ is healthy, 45–70% a normal rebuild, under 45% a major turnover.

18 proven transfers in, carrying the production below from their prior school.

• Dexter Ricks Jr. DB ← Liberty 52 impact
• Javante Mackey LB ← Arkansas State 38 impact
• Tae Woody DL ← UL Monroe 34 impact
• Phillip Bradford DL ← McNeese 23 impact
• Chancellor Owens DL ← Arizona 11 impact
• Jordan Sample LB ← Arkansas State 11 impact

Impact scores offensive skill additions (QB/RB/WR/TE) — prior-season production normalized within position (100 ≈ a 90th-percentile producer at that spot) and discounted for non-FBS competition, so a top back counts alongside a top quarterback. Defensive and O-line additions count as transfers but aren't box-score measurable, so they carry no impact score. The rating figure is this class's portal contribution vs. the FBS average, capped at ±2.5.

• 3rd-down conversion 41.8% 79th — strong
• Red-zone TD rate 13.6% 37th — below avg
• 4th-down aggression 46.7% 90th — elite
• Late & close 6.3 yds/play 80th — strong

Percentile is across all FBS teams with play-by-play data for the season. "Late & close" is yards per play in Q4+ with a one-score margin — a proxy for clutch offensive performance.