2026 Week 9 · Conference game
Texas State at Boise State
Sunday, November 1, 2026 · 2:00 AM UTC
Albertsons Stadium
Texas State
Pac-12
- Record
- 1-2
- Rating
- -5.9
- National rank
- 91
- Proj. wins
- 4.8
- Playoff prob.
- 0%
Boise State
Pac-12
- Record
- 2-1
- Rating
- 6.9
- National rank
- 47
- Proj. wins
- 7.0
- Playoff prob.
- 5%
GIE win probability
Headline numbers below. The 90% confidence band reflects rating uncertainty (±1.5 points per side); the model isn't claiming precision down to the percentage point.
Texas State
13%
Boise State
87%
Boise State 90% CI: 82% – 91% Δ rating 12.8
Boise State is the model's favorite at 87%. Texas State has a 13% path. Home-field adjustment of +2.5 rating points baked in for Boise State — venue-specific learned value (n=58 games).
Style fit
How each offense matches up against the opposite defense. Higher = the offense is expected to do well; mismatches show up here.
Texas State offense
39 / 100
Style-neutral matchup
Boise State offense
36 / 100
Style-neutral matchup
Weather at kickoff
Forecast not yet available — Open-Meteo provides a 16-day window. Check back closer to kickoff.
Game info
- Kickoff
- Sunday, November 1, 2026 · 2:00 AM UTC
- Venue
- Albertsons Stadium
- Conference game
- Yes
- Neutral site
- No