Broncos · Pac-12
Year-4 HCs (2015-2024) averaged -0.65 W vs. preseason expectation
Tap a win or a loss on each pivotal game to see how the playoff probability shifts. Leave any game unset to average across both outcomes.
Make the playoff
5%
Baseline projection.
Pivotal games are the 5 with the largest playoff-probability swing, ranked by the model. Math: chained Bayesian log-odds update from the conditional simulation set; gets the directionally right answer but won't perfectly capture cross-game correlations until the full Monte Carlo pipeline lands.
Share of last season's production each unit returns. Higher means more continuity: 70%+ is healthy, 45–70% a normal rebuild, under 45% a major turnover.
10 proven transfers in, carrying the production below from their prior school.
Impact scores offensive skill additions (QB/RB/WR/TE) — prior-season production normalized within position (100 ≈ a 90th-percentile producer at that spot) and discounted for non-FBS competition, so a top back counts alongside a top quarterback. Defensive and O-line additions count as transfers but aren't box-score measurable, so they carry no impact score. The rating figure is this class's portal contribution vs. the FBS average, capped at ±2.5.
GIE projects a 0.6 rating drop and a 2.3pp shift in playoff probability if Boise State loses its QB1 for an extended stretch. (n=3 historical samples; pooled across recent seasons.)
Percentile is across all FBS teams with play-by-play data for the season. "Late & close" is yards per play in Q4+ with a one-score margin — a proxy for clutch offensive performance.
Full 2026 slate. Tap a row for the matchup breakdown.
Boise State remains ranked 49th after dropping its Week 1 opener at Oregon, 34–27, with no movement in the model's rating. The Broncos' red-zone efficiency is a legitimate concern—converting just 16% of trips into touchdowns—but their…
Boise State sits at No. 64 overall with a 9–5 record after a convincing 38–21 home win over UNLV in Week 15. The Broncos controlled that matchup decisively, a bright spot in what's been a mixed Pac-12 campaign. GIE rates them at 3.1,…
Per-team pages get the full treatment in Phase 3: current rating, season projection histogram, schedule with win probabilities, and live overlays on Pylon stream days. For now, this page exists so stories and news have a permanent home as content rolls in.
