Broncos · Pac-12
Head coach Spencer Danielson Year 4 with Boise State
Year-4 HCs (2015-2024) averaged -0.65 W vs. preseason expectation
Their playoff probability after a win or a loss in each pivotal game. (Interactive toggles coming once the scenario sim finishes for this team.)
| Game | Win | Loss | Swing |
|---|---|---|---|
| vs Oregon State | 96% | 0% | +95pp |
Full 2026 slate. Tap a row for the matchup breakdown.
| Week | Opponent | Result or win prob.Result or win probability |
|---|---|---|
| Wk 1 Sep 5 | at Oregon Big Ten | Loss, 27-34 Final |
| Wk 2 Sep 12 | vs Memphis American Athletic | Win, 38-20 Final |
| Wk 3 Sep 20 | vs South Dakota Non-FBS | Win, 38-24 Final |
| Wk 4 Sep 26 | at Western Michigan Mid-American | Win, 32-7 Final |
| Wk 5 Oct 3 | vs Utah State Pac-12 | Win, 37-18 Final |
| Wk 6 Oct 11 | at Fresno State Pac-12 | Win, 38-31 Final |
| Wk 7 | Bye | |
| Wk 8 Oct 24 | at Washington State Pac-12 | Win, 31-10 Final |
| Wk 9 Nov 1 | vs Texas State Pac-12 | Win, 46-45 Final |
| Wk 10 Nov 7 | at Colorado State Pac-12 | Win, 64-38 Final |
| Wk 11 Nov 14 | vs Oregon State Pac-12 | |
| Wk 12 Nov 22 | vs San Diego State Pac-12 | |
More coming. Per-team pages get the full treatment in Phase 3: current rating, season projection histogram, schedule with win probabilities, and live overlays on Pylon stream days. For now, this page exists so stories and news have a permanent home as content rolls in.
GIE projects a 0.6 rating drop and a 2.3pp shift in playoff probability if Boise State loses its QB1 for an extended stretch. (n=3 historical samples; pooled across recent seasons.)
71 score
Share of last season's production each unit returns. Higher means more continuity: 70%+ is healthy, 45–70% a normal rebuild, under 45% a major turnover.
−0.9 rating
10 proven transfers in, carrying the production below from their prior school.
| Player | From | Impact |
|---|---|---|
| JeRico Washington Jr.DB From Kennesaw State | Kennesaw State | 117 |
| Juelz GoffRB From Pittsburgh | Pittsburgh | 51 |
| Darren MorrisWR From Southern | Southern | 47 |
| Harry Stewart IIIRB From Kansas | Kansas | 18 |
| Logan BrantleyLB From Kansas | Kansas | 16 |
| Roman TillmonDB From South Dakota | South Dakota | 7 |
Impact scores offensive skill additions (QB/RB/WR/TE) — prior-season production normalized within position (100 ≈ a 90th-percentile producer at that spot) and discounted for non-FBS competition, so a top back counts alongside a top quarterback. Defensive and O-line additions count as transfers but aren't box-score measurable, so they carry no impact score. The rating figure is this class's portal contribution vs. the FBS average, capped at ±2.5.
Percentile is across all FBS teams with play-by-play data for the season. "Late & close" is yards per play in Q4+ with a one-score margin — a proxy for clutch offensive performance.
