2026 Week 5 · Conference game
Utah State at Boise State
Saturday, October 3, 2026 · 11:30 PM UTC
Albertsons Stadium
Utah State
Pac-12
- Record
- 0-3
- Rating
- -9.3
- National rank
- 106
- Proj. wins
- 2.8
- Playoff prob.
- 0%
Boise State
Pac-12
- Record
- 2-1
- Rating
- 6.9
- National rank
- 47
- Proj. wins
- 7.0
- Playoff prob.
- 5%
GIE win probability
Headline numbers below. The 90% confidence band reflects rating uncertainty (±1.5 points per side); the model isn't claiming precision down to the percentage point.
Utah State
9%
Boise State
91%
Boise State 90% CI: 88% – 94% Δ rating 16.2
Boise State is the model's favorite at 91%. Utah State has a 9% path. Home-field adjustment of +2.5 rating points baked in for Boise State — venue-specific learned value (n=58 games).
Style fit
How each offense matches up against the opposite defense. Higher = the offense is expected to do well; mismatches show up here.
Utah State offense
39 / 100
Style-neutral matchup
Boise State offense
37 / 100
Style-neutral matchup
Weather at kickoff
Conditions
Clear
Temperature
56°F
Precipitation
0%
Wind
2 mph
Game info
- Kickoff
- Saturday, October 3, 2026 · 11:30 PM UTC
- Venue
- Albertsons Stadium
- Conference game
- Yes
- Neutral site
- No