2026 Week 1
Boise State at Oregon
Friday, September 4, 2026 · 11:00 PM CDT
Autzen Stadium
Boise State
Pac-12
- Record
- 0-0
- Rating
- 3.1
- National rank
- 64
- Proj. wins
- 6.0
- Playoff prob.
- 0%
Oregon
Big Ten
- Record
- 0-0
- Rating
- 25.9
- National rank
- 4
- Proj. wins
- 9.3
- Playoff prob.
- 92%
GIE win probability
Headline numbers below. The 90% confidence band reflects rating uncertainty (±1.5 points per side); the model isn't claiming precision down to the percentage point.
Boise State
4%
Oregon
96%
Oregon 90% CI: 94% – 97% Δ rating 22.8
Oregon is the model's favorite at 96%. Boise State has a 4% path. Home-field adjustment of +2.4 rating points baked in for Oregon — venue-specific learned value (n=55 games).
Style fit
How each offense matches up against the opposite defense. Higher = the offense is expected to do well; mismatches show up here.
Boise State offense
28 / 100
Style-neutral matchup
Oregon offense
39 / 100
Style-neutral matchup
Weather at kickoff
Forecast not yet available — Open-Meteo provides a 16-day window. Check back closer to kickoff.
Game info
- Kickoff
- Friday, September 4, 2026 · 11:00 PM CDT
- Venue
- Autzen Stadium
- Conference game
- No
- Neutral site
- No