Cougars · Big 12
Year-1 HCs (2015-2024) averaged -0.19 W vs SP+ expected · n=83
Tap a win or a loss on each pivotal game to see how the playoff probability shifts. Leave any game unset to average across both outcomes.
Make the playoff
1%
Baseline projection.
Pivotal games are the 5 with the largest playoff-probability swing, ranked by the model. Math: chained Bayesian log-odds update from the conditional simulation set; gets the directionally right answer but won't perfectly capture cross-game correlations until the full Monte Carlo pipeline lands.
PCI weights returning production by position group (QB/OL heaviest). 70%+ is healthy continuity; 45-70% is a normal rebuild; below 45% is a meaningful turnover.
Percentile is across all FBS teams with play-by-play data for the season. "Late & close" is yards per play in Q4+ with a one-score margin — a proxy for clutch offensive performance.
Full 2026 slate. Tap a row for the matchup breakdown.
Houston sits at 40th in the model's rankings with a 7.4 rating after a 10–3 season that included a road win over Baylor in Week 14. That 31–24 victory kept the Cougars' postseason hopes alive in a competitive Big 12 landscape. The model…
GIE sees Houston 19 spots lower than the CFP Committee, and the divergence reflects a fundamental disagreement about recent performance quality. While Houston has notched three consecutive wins—over UCF (30–27), TCU (14–17), and Baylor…
GIE ranks Houston 16 spots lower than the Coaches Poll, reflecting a more skeptical read on recent performance. While Houston has notched three consecutive wins—including road victories at UCF (30–27) and Baylor (31–24)—the model's…
Per-team pages get the full treatment in Phase 3: current rating, season projection histogram, schedule with win probabilities, and live overlays on Pylon stream days. For now, this page exists so stories and news have a permanent home as content rolls in.
