Cougars · Big 12
Year-2 HCs (2015-2024) averaged +0.09 W vs. preseason expectation
Tap a win or a loss on each pivotal game to see how the playoff probability shifts. Leave any game unset to average across both outcomes.
Make the playoff
4%
Baseline projection.
Pivotal games are the 5 with the largest playoff-probability swing, ranked by the model. Math: chained Bayesian log-odds update from the conditional simulation set; gets the directionally right answer but won't perfectly capture cross-game correlations until the full Monte Carlo pipeline lands.
Share of last season's production each unit returns. Higher means more continuity: 70%+ is healthy, 45–70% a normal rebuild, under 45% a major turnover.
19 proven transfers in, carrying the production below from their prior school.
Impact scores offensive skill additions (QB/RB/WR/TE) — prior-season production normalized within position (100 ≈ a 90th-percentile producer at that spot) and discounted for non-FBS competition, so a top back counts alongside a top quarterback. Defensive and O-line additions count as transfers but aren't box-score measurable, so they carry no impact score. The rating figure is this class's portal contribution vs. the FBS average, capped at ±2.5.
Percentile is across all FBS teams with play-by-play data for the season. "Late & close" is yards per play in Q4+ with a one-score margin — a proxy for clutch offensive performance.
Full 2026 slate. Tap a row for the matchup breakdown.
Houston sits at 38th overall after a 33–20 home win over Oregon State in Week 1, but the rating hasn't budged—GIE sees the Cougars holding steady at 7.4. The offense has clear execution problems: a red-zone TD rate of just 15% and…
Houston sits at 40th in the model's rankings with a 7.4 rating after a 10–3 season that included a road win over Baylor in Week 14. That 31–24 victory kept the Cougars' postseason hopes alive in a competitive Big 12 landscape. The model…
GIE sees Houston 19 spots lower than the CFP Committee, and the divergence reflects a fundamental disagreement about recent performance quality. While Houston has notched three consecutive wins—over UCF (30–27), TCU (14–17), and Baylor…
GIE ranks Houston 16 spots lower than the Coaches Poll, reflecting a more skeptical read on recent performance. While Houston has notched three consecutive wins—including road victories at UCF (30–27) and Baylor (31–24)—the model's…
Per-team pages get the full treatment in Phase 3: current rating, season projection histogram, schedule with win probabilities, and live overlays on Pylon stream days. For now, this page exists so stories and news have a permanent home as content rolls in.
