2026 Week 4
Houston at Georgia Southern
Friday, September 25, 2026 · 11:00 PM CDT
Allen E. Paulson Stadium
Houston
Big 12
- Record
- 0-0
- Rating
- 7.4
- National rank
- 40
- Proj. wins
- 7.4
- Playoff prob.
- 1%
Georgia Southern
Sun Belt
- Record
- 0-0
- Rating
- -9.4
- National rank
- 103
- Proj. wins
- 0.9
- Playoff prob.
- 0%
GIE win probability
Headline numbers below. The 90% confidence band reflects rating uncertainty (±1.5 points per side); the model isn't claiming precision down to the percentage point.
Houston
81%
Georgia Southern
19%
Georgia Southern 90% CI: 14% – 26% Δ rating 16.8
Houston is the model's favorite at 81%. Georgia Southern has a 19% path. Home-field adjustment of +5.5 rating points baked in for Georgia Southern — venue-specific learned value (n=49 games).
Style fit
How each offense matches up against the opposite defense. Higher = the offense is expected to do well; mismatches show up here.
Houston offense
43 / 100
Style-neutral matchup
Georgia Southern offense
33 / 100
Style-neutral matchup
Weather at kickoff
Forecast not yet available — Open-Meteo provides a 16-day window. Check back closer to kickoff.
Game info
- Kickoff
- Friday, September 25, 2026 · 11:00 PM CDT
- Venue
- Allen E. Paulson Stadium
- Conference game
- No
- Neutral site
- No