2026 Week 4
Houston at Georgia Southern
Saturday, September 26, 2026 · 8:00 PM UTC
Allen E. Paulson Stadium
Houston
Big 12
- Record
- 2-1
- Rating
- 10.8
- National rank
- 34
- Proj. wins
- 6.6
- Playoff prob.
- 4%
Georgia Southern
Sun Belt
- Record
- 1-2
- Rating
- -7.7
- National rank
- 102
- Proj. wins
- 4.6
- Playoff prob.
- 0%
GIE win probability
Headline numbers below. The 90% confidence band reflects rating uncertainty (±1.5 points per side); the model isn't claiming precision down to the percentage point.
Houston
84%
Georgia Southern
16%
Georgia Southern 90% CI: 12% – 22% Δ rating 18.5
Houston is the model's favorite at 84%. Georgia Southern has a 16% path. Home-field adjustment of +5.5 rating points baked in for Georgia Southern — venue-specific learned value (n=49 games).
Style fit
How each offense matches up against the opposite defense. Higher = the offense is expected to do well; mismatches show up here.
Houston offense
43 / 100
Style-neutral matchup
Georgia Southern offense
33 / 100
Style-neutral matchup
Weather at kickoff
Conditions
Clear
Temperature
74°F
Precipitation
0%
Wind
6 mph
Game info
- Kickoff
- Saturday, September 26, 2026 · 8:00 PM UTC
- Venue
- Allen E. Paulson Stadium
- Conference game
- No
- Neutral site
- No