Utah State
Aggies · Pac-12
Year-2 HCs (2015-2024) averaged +0.09 W vs. preseason expectation
Season Projection · 2026 W5
10,000 simsPath to Glory
Their playoff probability after a win or a loss in each pivotal game. (Interactive toggles coming once the scenario sim finishes for this team.)
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at Boise Stateon road · Oct 3Win0%+0ppLoss0% -
at Boise Stateon road · Oct 3Win0%+0ppLoss0% -
at Boise Stateon road · Oct 3Win0%+0ppLoss0% -
at Boise Stateon road · Oct 3Win0%+0ppLoss0% -
at Oregon Stateon road · Nov 22Win0%+0ppLoss0%
Returning production · 2026
- Quarterback 100% (4/5 )
- Offensive line 83% (15/18 players)
- Skill (RB/WR/TE) 37% (18/26 )
- Front 7 (DL/LB) 87% (27/32 )
- Secondary 66% (14/21 )
- Special teams 100% (5/7 )
Share of last season's production each unit returns. Higher means more continuity: 70%+ is healthy, 45–70% a normal rebuild, under 45% a major turnover.
Portal additions · 2026
31 proven transfers in, carrying the production below from their prior school.
- Javon Robinson WR ← Georgia State 113 impact
- Ta'Avili Tuitama DT ← New Mexico State 67 impact
- Markie Grant CB ← Wyoming 51 impact
- Eli Wood WR ← Virginia 38 impact
- Harrison Taggart LB ← California 35 impact
- Sesi Vailahi RB ← Oklahoma State 29 impact
Impact scores offensive skill additions (QB/RB/WR/TE) — prior-season production normalized within position (100 ≈ a 90th-percentile producer at that spot) and discounted for non-FBS competition, so a top back counts alongside a top quarterback. Defensive and O-line additions count as transfers but aren't box-score measurable, so they carry no impact score. The rating figure is this class's portal contribution vs. the FBS average, capped at ±2.5.
Situational efficiency · 2025
FBS percentile rank- 3rd-down conversion 35.7% 41th — below avg
- Red-zone TD rate 14.1% 43th — below avg
- 4th-down aggression 24.3% 8th — bottom tier
- Late & close 7.4 yds/play 92th — elite
Percentile is across all FBS teams with play-by-play data for the season. "Late & close" is yards per play in Q4+ with a one-score margin — a proxy for clutch offensive performance.
Schedule
Full 2026 slate. Tap a row for the matchup breakdown.
- Wk 1Sep 5vsIdaho StateL17-29Final
- Wk 2Sep 12
atWashingtonBig TenL14-16Final - Wk 3Sep 19
atUtahBig 12L0-33Final - Wk 4Sep 26
vsTroySun Belt48%Win prob - Wk 5Oct 3
atBoise StatePac-129%Win prob - Wk 6Oct 10
vsWashington StatePac-1246%Win prob - Wk 8Oct 24
atTexas StatePac-1232%Win prob - Wk 9Oct 31
vsColorado StatePac-1249%Win prob - Wk 10Nov 8
vsFresno StatePac-1231%Win prob - Wk 11Nov 15
atSan Diego StatePac-1224%Win prob - Wk 12Nov 22
atOregon StatePac-1224%Win prob
Latest Stories
More coming
Per-team pages get the full treatment in Phase 3: current rating, season projection histogram, schedule with win probabilities, and live overlays on Pylon stream days. For now, this page exists so stories and news have a permanent home as content rolls in.