Utah State

Aggies · Pac-12

Head coach Bronco Mendenhall Year 1 with Utah State

Year-1 HCs (2015-2024) averaged -0.19 W vs SP+ expected · n=83

Season Projection · 2026 W0

10,000 sims

4.6

Expected wins

5-5

Proj record

2 to 8

Win range (90%)

#85 (62–106)

Final rank (90%)

Make playoff

Win conference

Path to Glory

Tap a win or a loss on each pivotal game to see how the playoff probability shifts. Leave any game unset to average across both outcomes.

Make the playoff

Baseline projection.

vs Idaho State

Home · Sep 5
vs Troy

Home · Sep 26
at Boise State

Away · Oct 3

Pivotal games are the 5 with the largest playoff-probability swing, ranked by the model. Math: chained Bayesian log-odds update from the conditional simulation set; gets the directionally right answer but won't perfectly capture cross-game correlations until the full Monte Carlo pipeline lands.

Returning production · 2025

41 PCI

Quarterback 50% (3/6 players)
Offensive line 63% (10/16 players)
Skill (RB/WR/TE) 30% (8/27 players)
Front 7 (DL/LB) 29% (10/34 players)
Secondary 32% (6/19 players)
Special teams 0% (0/6 players)

PCI weights returning production by position group (QB/OL heaviest). 70%+ is healthy continuity; 45-70% is a normal rebuild; below 45% is a meaningful turnover.

Situational efficiency · 2025

FBS percentile rank

3rd-down conversion 35.7% 41th — below avg
Red-zone TD rate 14.1% 43th — below avg
4th-down aggression 24.3% 8th — bottom tier
Late & close 7.4 yds/play 92th — elite

Percentile is across all FBS teams with play-by-play data for the season. "Late & close" is yards per play in Q4+ with a one-score margin — a proxy for clutch offensive performance.

Schedule

Full 2026 slate. Tap a row for the matchup breakdown.

Latest Stories

Stories about Utah State will appear here as they're published. Check back during the season for analysis, hot takes, and game write-ups.

More coming

Per-team pages get the full treatment in Phase 3: current rating, season projection histogram, schedule with win probabilities, and live overlays on Pylon stream days. For now, this page exists so stories and news have a permanent home as content rolls in.