UConn

Huskies · FBS Independents

Head coach Jim Mora Year 4 with UConn

Year-4 HCs (2015-2024) averaged -0.65 W vs SP+ expected · n=59

Season Projection · 2026 W0

10,000 sims

8.1

Expected wins

8-4

Proj record

5 to 11

Win range (90%)

#51 (28–79)

Final rank (90%)

Make playoff

14%

Win conference

Path to Glory

Tap a win or a loss on each pivotal game to see how the playoff probability shifts. Leave any game unset to average across both outcomes.

Make the playoff

Baseline projection.

vs James Madison

Home · Nov 14
at Air Force

Away · Oct 31
vs Old Dominion

Home · Nov 21
at Southern Miss

Away · Sep 19
at Miami (OH)

Away · Sep 26

Pivotal games are the 5 with the largest playoff-probability swing, ranked by the model. Math: chained Bayesian log-odds update from the conditional simulation set; gets the directionally right answer but won't perfectly capture cross-game correlations until the full Monte Carlo pipeline lands.

Returning production · 2025

58 PCI

Quarterback 60% (3/5 players)
Offensive line 74% (14/19 players)
Skill (RB/WR/TE) 50% (17/34 players)
Front 7 (DL/LB) 52% (15/29 players)
Secondary 50% (9/18 players)
Special teams 50% (3/6 players)

PCI weights returning production by position group (QB/OL heaviest). 70%+ is healthy continuity; 45-70% is a normal rebuild; below 45% is a meaningful turnover.

If QB1 is out (Joe Fagnano)

GIE projects a -6.2 rating drop and a -24.8pp shift in playoff probability if UConn loses its QB1 for an extended stretch. (n=1 historical samples; pooled across recent seasons.)

Situational efficiency · 2025

FBS percentile rank

3rd-down conversion 38.2% 60th — average
Red-zone TD rate 17.2% 73th — strong
4th-down aggression 30.6% 23th — bottom tier
Late & close 6.2 yds/play 77th — strong

Percentile is across all FBS teams with play-by-play data for the season. "Late & close" is yards per play in Q4+ with a one-score margin — a proxy for clutch offensive performance.

Schedule

Full 2026 slate. Tap a row for the matchup breakdown.

Latest Stories

Stories about UConn will appear here as they're published. Check back during the season for analysis, hot takes, and game write-ups.

More coming

Per-team pages get the full treatment in Phase 3: current rating, season projection histogram, schedule with win probabilities, and live overlays on Pylon stream days. For now, this page exists so stories and news have a permanent home as content rolls in.