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UConn

Huskies · FBS Independents

Head coach Jason Candle Year 1 with UConn

Year-1 HCs (2015-2024) averaged -0.19 W vs. preseason expectation

Season Projection · 2026 W0

10,000 sims
8.1
Expected wins
8-4
Proj record
5 to 11
Win range (90%)
#51 (28–78)
Final rank (90%)
1%
Make playoff
14%
Win conference

Path to Glory

Tap a win or a loss on each pivotal game to see how the playoff probability shifts. Leave any game unset to average across both outcomes.

Make the playoff

1%

Baseline projection.

  • vs James Madison
    Home · Nov 14
  • at Air Force
    Away · Oct 31
  • at Miami (OH)
    Away · Sep 26
  • vs Old Dominion
    Home · Nov 21
  • at Temple
    Away · Oct 10

Pivotal games are the 5 with the largest playoff-probability swing, ranked by the model. Math: chained Bayesian log-odds update from the conditional simulation set; gets the directionally right answer but won't perfectly capture cross-game correlations until the full Monte Carlo pipeline lands.

Returning production · 2026

9 score
  • Quarterback 1% (2/5 )
  • Offensive line 37% (7/19 players)
  • Skill (RB/WR/TE) 4% (8/34 )
  • Front 7 (DL/LB) 4% (7/31 )
  • Secondary 2% (4/22 )
  • Special teams 1% (3/7 )

Share of last season's production each unit returns. Higher means more continuity: 70%+ is healthy, 45–70% a normal rebuild, under 45% a major turnover.

Portal additions · 2026

+1.5 rating

54 proven transfers in, carrying the production below from their prior school.

  • K'Von Sherman LB ← Toledo 184 impact
  • Anas Luqman DL ← Ohio 145 impact
  • Kenji Christian RB ← Toledo 101 impact
  • Esean Carter DT ← Toledo 91 impact
  • Jayden Davis DB ← Fresno State 77 impact
  • Ky Wilson WR ← Youngstown State 69 impact

Impact scores offensive skill additions (QB/RB/WR/TE) — prior-season production normalized within position (100 ≈ a 90th-percentile producer at that spot) and discounted for non-FBS competition, so a top back counts alongside a top quarterback. Defensive and O-line additions count as transfers but aren't box-score measurable, so they carry no impact score. The rating figure is this class's portal contribution vs. the FBS average, capped at ±2.5.

If QB1 is out (Joe Fagnano)

GIE projects a -6.2 rating drop and a -24.8pp shift in playoff probability if UConn loses its QB1 for an extended stretch. (n=1 historical samples; pooled across recent seasons.)

Situational efficiency · 2025

FBS percentile rank
  • 3rd-down conversion 38.2% 60th — average
  • Red-zone TD rate 17.2% 73th — strong
  • 4th-down aggression 30.6% 23th — bottom tier
  • Late & close 6.2 yds/play 77th — strong

Percentile is across all FBS teams with play-by-play data for the season. "Late & close" is yards per play in Q4+ with a one-score margin — a proxy for clutch offensive performance.

More coming

Per-team pages get the full treatment in Phase 3: current rating, season projection histogram, schedule with win probabilities, and live overlays on Pylon stream days. For now, this page exists so stories and news have a permanent home as content rolls in.