UConn
Huskies · FBS Independents
Year-1 HCs (2015-2024) averaged -0.19 W vs. preseason expectation
Season Projection · 2026 W0
10,000 simsPath to Glory
Tap a win or a loss on each pivotal game to see how the playoff probability shifts. Leave any game unset to average across both outcomes.
Make the playoff
1%
Baseline projection.
-
vs James MadisonHome · Nov 14 -
at Air ForceAway · Oct 31 -
at Miami (OH)Away · Sep 26 -
vs Old DominionHome · Nov 21 -
at TempleAway · Oct 10
Pivotal games are the 5 with the largest playoff-probability swing, ranked by the model. Math: chained Bayesian log-odds update from the conditional simulation set; gets the directionally right answer but won't perfectly capture cross-game correlations until the full Monte Carlo pipeline lands.
Returning production · 2026
- Quarterback 1% (2/5 )
- Offensive line 37% (7/19 players)
- Skill (RB/WR/TE) 4% (8/34 )
- Front 7 (DL/LB) 4% (7/31 )
- Secondary 2% (4/22 )
- Special teams 1% (3/7 )
Share of last season's production each unit returns. Higher means more continuity: 70%+ is healthy, 45–70% a normal rebuild, under 45% a major turnover.
Portal additions · 2026
54 proven transfers in, carrying the production below from their prior school.
- K'Von Sherman LB ← Toledo 184 impact
- Anas Luqman DL ← Ohio 145 impact
- Kenji Christian RB ← Toledo 101 impact
- Esean Carter DT ← Toledo 91 impact
- Jayden Davis DB ← Fresno State 77 impact
- Ky Wilson WR ← Youngstown State 69 impact
Impact scores offensive skill additions (QB/RB/WR/TE) — prior-season production normalized within position (100 ≈ a 90th-percentile producer at that spot) and discounted for non-FBS competition, so a top back counts alongside a top quarterback. Defensive and O-line additions count as transfers but aren't box-score measurable, so they carry no impact score. The rating figure is this class's portal contribution vs. the FBS average, capped at ±2.5.
GIE projects a -6.2 rating drop and a -24.8pp shift in playoff probability if UConn loses its QB1 for an extended stretch. (n=1 historical samples; pooled across recent seasons.)
Situational efficiency · 2025
FBS percentile rank- 3rd-down conversion 38.2% 60th — average
- Red-zone TD rate 17.2% 73th — strong
- 4th-down aggression 30.6% 23th — bottom tier
- Late & close 6.2 yds/play 77th — strong
Percentile is across all FBS teams with play-by-play data for the season. "Late & close" is yards per play in Q4+ with a one-score margin — a proxy for clutch offensive performance.
Schedule
Full 2026 slate. Tap a row for the matchup breakdown.
- Wk 1Sep 5vsLafayette—
- Wk 2Sep 12
vsMarylandBig Ten71%Win prob - Wk 3Sep 19
atSouthern MissSun Belt77%Win prob - Wk 4Sep 26
atMiami (OH)Mid-American68%Win prob - Wk 5Oct 3
vsSyracuseACC93%Win prob - Wk 6Oct 10
atTempleAmerican Athletic72%Win prob - Wk 8Oct 23
vsMassachusettsMid-American100%Win prob - Wk 9Oct 31
atAir ForceMountain West67%Win prob - Wk 10Nov 7
vsNorth CarolinaACC86%Win prob - Wk 11Nov 14
vsJames MadisonSun Belt36%Win prob - Wk 12Nov 21
vsOld DominionSun Belt55%Win prob - Wk 13Nov 28
atWyomingMountain West85%Win prob
Latest Stories
More coming
Per-team pages get the full treatment in Phase 3: current rating, season projection histogram, schedule with win probabilities, and live overlays on Pylon stream days. For now, this page exists so stories and news have a permanent home as content rolls in.