UCLA
Bruins · Big Ten
Year-1 HCs (2015-2024) averaged -0.19 W vs. preseason expectation
Season Projection · 2026 W0
10,000 simsPath to Glory
Tap a win or a loss on each pivotal game to see how the playoff probability shifts. Leave any game unset to average across both outcomes.
Make the playoff
0%
Baseline projection.
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at CaliforniaAway · Sep 6 -
at MarylandAway · Sep 26 -
vs WisconsinHome · Oct 17
Pivotal games are the 5 with the largest playoff-probability swing, ranked by the model. Math: chained Bayesian log-odds update from the conditional simulation set; gets the directionally right answer but won't perfectly capture cross-game correlations until the full Monte Carlo pipeline lands.
Returning production · 2026
- Quarterback 91% (3/7 )
- Offensive line 44% (8/18 players)
- Skill (RB/WR/TE) 38% (13/26 )
- Front 7 (DL/LB) 27% (16/28 )
- Secondary 61% (12/21 )
- Special teams 13% (4/7 )
Share of last season's production each unit returns. Higher means more continuity: 70%+ is healthy, 45–70% a normal rebuild, under 45% a major turnover.
Portal additions · 2026
41 proven transfers in, carrying the production below from their prior school.
- Wayne Knight RB ← James Madison 247 impact
- Sahir West DL ← James Madison 226 impact
- Derrick Barksdale DB ← James Madison 137 impact
- Aiden Gobaira DL ← James Madison 129 impact
- Leland Smith WR ← San José State 127 impact
- Landon Ellis WR ← James Madison 114 impact
Impact scores offensive skill additions (QB/RB/WR/TE) — prior-season production normalized within position (100 ≈ a 90th-percentile producer at that spot) and discounted for non-FBS competition, so a top back counts alongside a top quarterback. Defensive and O-line additions count as transfers but aren't box-score measurable, so they carry no impact score. The rating figure is this class's portal contribution vs. the FBS average, capped at ±2.5.
GIE projects a -4.1 rating drop and a -16.3pp shift in playoff probability if UCLA loses its QB1 for an extended stretch. (n=1 historical samples; pooled across recent seasons.)
Situational efficiency · 2025
FBS percentile rank- 3rd-down conversion 32.3% 26th — below avg
- Red-zone TD rate 9.8% 16th — bottom tier
- 4th-down aggression 37.0% 55th — average
- Late & close 6.7 yds/play 86th — strong
Percentile is across all FBS teams with play-by-play data for the season. "Late & close" is yards per play in Q4+ with a one-score margin — a proxy for clutch offensive performance.
Schedule
Full 2026 slate. Tap a row for the matchup breakdown.
- Wk 1Sep 6
atCaliforniaACC27%Win prob - Wk 2Sep 12
vsSan Diego StatePac-1217%Win prob - Wk 3Sep 20
vsPurdueBig Ten50%Win prob - Wk 4Sep 26
atMarylandBig Ten19%Win prob - Wk 6Oct 10
atOregonBig Ten1%Win prob - Wk 7Oct 17
vsWisconsinBig Ten44%Win prob - Wk 8Oct 24
vsMichigan StateBig Ten41%Win prob - Wk 9Oct 31
vsNevadaMountain West71%Win prob - Wk 10Nov 7
atMinnesotaBig Ten17%Win prob - Wk 11Nov 14
vsIllinoisBig Ten8%Win prob - Wk 12Nov 21
atMichiganBig Ten5%Win prob - Wk 13Nov 28
vsUSCBig Ten5%Win prob
Latest Stories
More coming
Per-team pages get the full treatment in Phase 3: current rating, season projection histogram, schedule with win probabilities, and live overlays on Pylon stream days. For now, this page exists so stories and news have a permanent home as content rolls in.