Mustangs · ACC
Head coach Rhett Lashlee Year 5 with SMU
Their playoff probability after a win or a loss in each pivotal game. (Interactive toggles coming once the scenario sim finishes for this team.)
| Game | Win | Loss | Swing |
|---|---|---|---|
| at Notre Dame | 41% | 0% | +41pp |
| vs Wake Forest | 25% | 0% | +25pp |
Full 2026 slate. Tap a row for the matchup breakdown.
| Week | Opponent | Result or win prob.Result or win probability |
|---|---|---|
| Wk 1 Sep 7 | at Florida State ACC | Win, 27-24 Final |
| Wk 2 Sep 12 | vs UC Davis Non-FBS | Win, 56-10 Final |
| Wk 3 Sep 19 | at Louisville ACC | Loss, 31-41 Final |
| Wk 4 Sep 27 | vs Missouri State Conference USA | Win, 34-24 Final |
| Wk 5 Oct 3 | vs Boston College ACC | Win, 25-16 Final |
| Wk 6 | Bye | |
| Wk 7 Oct 17 | vs Virginia ACC | Win, 23-13 Final |
| Wk 8 Oct 24 | vs California ACC | Win, 59-20 Final |
| Wk 9 Oct 31 | at Syracuse ACC | Loss, 27-30 Final |
| Wk 10 Nov 7 | vs Virginia Tech ACC | Win, 51-28 Final |
| Wk 11 Nov 14 | vs Wake Forest ACC | |
| Wk 12 Nov 22 | at Notre Dame FBS Independents | |
| Wk 13 Nov 28 | at Stanford ACC | |
More coming. Per-team pages get the full treatment in Phase 3: current rating, season projection histogram, schedule with win probabilities, and live overlays on Pylon stream days. For now, this page exists so stories and news have a permanent home as content rolls in.
65 score
Share of last season's production each unit returns. Higher means more continuity: 70%+ is healthy, 45–70% a normal rebuild, under 45% a major turnover.
+1.2 rating
18 proven transfers in, carrying the production below from their prior school.
| Player | From | Impact |
|---|---|---|
| Jarvis LeeS From South Florida | South Florida | 231 |
| Kendrick RaphaelRB From California | California | 167 |
| Marques WhiteDE From Massachusetts | Massachusetts | 165 |
| Jimmy WyrickS From UTSA | UTSA | 122 |
| Yannick SmithWR From East Carolina | East Carolina | 106 |
| Randy Pittman Jr.TE From Florida State | Florida State | 98 |
Impact scores offensive skill additions (QB/RB/WR/TE) — prior-season production normalized within position (100 ≈ a 90th-percentile producer at that spot) and discounted for non-FBS competition, so a top back counts alongside a top quarterback. Defensive and O-line additions count as transfers but aren't box-score measurable, so they carry no impact score. The rating figure is this class's portal contribution vs. the FBS average, capped at ±2.5.
Percentile is across all FBS teams with play-by-play data for the season. "Late & close" is yards per play in Q4+ with a one-score margin — a proxy for clutch offensive performance.
