2026 Week 5 · Conference game
Boston College at SMU
Saturday, October 3, 2026 · 4:00 PM UTC
Gerald J. Ford Stadium
Boston College
ACC
- Record
- 2-1
- Rating
- -4.9
- National rank
- 85
- Proj. wins
- 5.2
- Playoff prob.
- 0%
SMU
ACC
- Record
- 2-1
- Rating
- 12.0
- National rank
- 29
- Proj. wins
- 7.5
- Playoff prob.
- 3%
GIE win probability
Headline numbers below. The 90% confidence band reflects rating uncertainty (±1.5 points per side); the model isn't claiming precision down to the percentage point.
Boston College
6%
SMU
94%
SMU 90% CI: 91% – 96% Δ rating 16.9
SMU is the model's favorite at 94%. Boston College has a 6% path. Home-field adjustment of +4.9 rating points baked in for SMU — venue-specific learned value (n=51 games).
Style fit
How each offense matches up against the opposite defense. Higher = the offense is expected to do well; mismatches show up here.
Boston College offense
36 / 100
Style-neutral matchup
SMU offense
45 / 100
Style-neutral matchup
Weather at kickoff
Conditions
Overcast
Temperature
95°F
Precipitation
21%
Wind
5 mph
Game info
- Kickoff
- Saturday, October 3, 2026 · 4:00 PM UTC
- Venue
- Gerald J. Ford Stadium
- Conference game
- Yes
- Neutral site
- No