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2026 Week 5 · Conference game

Boston College at SMU

Saturday, October 3, 2026 · 4:00 PM UTC

Gerald J. Ford Stadium

Boston College
ACC
Record
2-1
Rating
-4.9
National rank
85
Proj. wins
5.2
Playoff prob.
0%
SMU
ACC
Record
2-1
Rating
12.0
National rank
29
Proj. wins
7.5
Playoff prob.
3%

GIE win probability

Headline numbers below. The 90% confidence band reflects rating uncertainty (±1.5 points per side); the model isn't claiming precision down to the percentage point.

Boston College
6%
SMU
94%
SMU 90% CI: 91% – 96% Δ rating 16.9

SMU is the model's favorite at 94%. Boston College has a 6% path. Home-field adjustment of +4.9 rating points baked in for SMU — venue-specific learned value (n=51 games).

Style fit

How each offense matches up against the opposite defense. Higher = the offense is expected to do well; mismatches show up here.

Boston College offense
36 / 100

Style-neutral matchup

SMU offense
45 / 100

Style-neutral matchup

Weather at kickoff

Conditions
Overcast
Temperature
95°F
Precipitation
21%
Wind
5 mph

Game info

Kickoff
Saturday, October 3, 2026 · 4:00 PM UTC
Venue
Gerald J. Ford Stadium
Conference game
Yes
Neutral site
No
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