2026 Week 3 FINAL · Conference game
SMU at Louisville
Saturday, September 19, 2026 · 7:30 PM UTC
L&N Federal Credit Union Stadium
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SMU | 7 | 10 | 7 | 7 | 31 |
| Louisville | 14 | 0 | 14 | 13 | 41 |
GIE pre-game call: Louisville at 67%. Hit.
Recaps
- SMU recap
SMU: 2026 Week 3 recap
SMU sits at No. 25 with a rating of 12.1 heading into Week 1 play, which means the Mustangs' schedule hasn't yet begun. GIE projects them for 8.4 expected wins and gives them an 11% shot at the playoff and a 12% chance to win the…
- Louisville recap
Louisville: 2026 Week 3 recap
Louisville remains ranked 27th with a 11.1 rating after dropping their Week 1 opener to Ole Miss, 41–38. That loss stings partly because the Cards converted just 15% of red-zone trips into touchdowns—efficiency that tight would've changed…
- Record
- 2-1
- Rating
- 12.0
- National rank
- 29
- Proj. wins
- 7.5
- Playoff prob.
- 3%
- Record
- 2-1
- Rating
- 13.3
- National rank
- 25
- Proj. wins
- 7.5
- Playoff prob.
- 9%
GIE win probability
Headline numbers below. The 90% confidence band reflects rating uncertainty (±1.5 points per side); the model isn't claiming precision down to the percentage point.
Louisville is the model's favorite at 67%. SMU has a 33% path. Home-field adjustment of +4.3 rating points baked in for Louisville — venue-specific learned value (n=58 games).
Game info
- Kickoff
- Saturday, September 19, 2026 · 7:30 PM UTC
- Venue
- L&N Federal Credit Union Stadium
- Conference game
- Yes
- Neutral site
- No