2026 Week 3 · Conference game
SMU at Louisville
Friday, September 18, 2026 · 11:00 PM CDT
L&N Federal Credit Union Stadium
SMU
ACC
- Record
- 0-0
- Rating
- 13.4
- National rank
- 23
- Proj. wins
- 8.5
- Playoff prob.
- 12%
Louisville
ACC
- Record
- 0-0
- Rating
- 12.4
- National rank
- 25
- Proj. wins
- 7.8
- Playoff prob.
- 9%
GIE win probability
Headline numbers below. The 90% confidence band reflects rating uncertainty (±1.5 points per side); the model isn't claiming precision down to the percentage point.
SMU
40%
Louisville
60%
Louisville 90% CI: 51% – 69% Δ rating 1.0
Louisville is the model's favorite at 60%. SMU has a 40% path. Home-field adjustment of +4.3 rating points baked in for Louisville — venue-specific learned value (n=58 games).
Style fit
How each offense matches up against the opposite defense. Higher = the offense is expected to do well; mismatches show up here.
SMU offense
30 / 100
Style-neutral matchup
Louisville offense
34 / 100
Style-neutral matchup
Weather at kickoff
Forecast not yet available — Open-Meteo provides a 16-day window. Check back closer to kickoff.
Game info
- Kickoff
- Friday, September 18, 2026 · 11:00 PM CDT
- Venue
- L&N Federal Credit Union Stadium
- Conference game
- Yes
- Neutral site
- No