2026 Week 1 FINAL · Conference game
SMU at Florida State
Monday, September 7, 2026 · 11:30 PM UTC
Doak Campbell Stadium
27
SMU
Final
24
Florida State
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SMU | 7 | 10 | 0 | 10 | 27 |
| Florida State | 7 | 3 | 7 | 7 | 24 |
GIE pre-game call: SMU at 62%. Hit.
Recaps
Weekly recaps generate Monday morning. Check back for both teams' write-ups.
SMU
ACC
- Record
- 2-1
- Rating
- 12.0
- National rank
- 29
- Proj. wins
- 7.5
- Playoff prob.
- 3%
Florida State
ACC
- Record
- 1-2
- Rating
- 5.5
- National rank
- 53
- Proj. wins
- 4.5
- Playoff prob.
- 0%
GIE win probability
Headline numbers below. The 90% confidence band reflects rating uncertainty (±1.5 points per side); the model isn't claiming precision down to the percentage point.
SMU
62%
Florida State
38%
Florida State 90% CI: 30% – 47% Δ rating 6.5
SMU is the model's favorite at 62%. Florida State has a 38% path. Home-field adjustment of +2.6 rating points baked in for Florida State — venue-specific learned value (n=55 games).
Game info
- Kickoff
- Monday, September 7, 2026 · 11:30 PM UTC
- Venue
- Doak Campbell Stadium
- Conference game
- Yes
- Neutral site
- No