2026 Week 1 · Conference game
SMU at Florida State
Sunday, September 6, 2026 · 11:00 PM CDT
Doak Campbell Stadium
SMU
ACC
- Record
- 0-0
- Rating
- 13.4
- National rank
- 23
- Proj. wins
- 8.5
- Playoff prob.
- 12%
Florida State
ACC
- Record
- 0-0
- Rating
- 7.2
- National rank
- 41
- Proj. wins
- 6.3
- Playoff prob.
- 1%
GIE win probability
Headline numbers below. The 90% confidence band reflects rating uncertainty (±1.5 points per side); the model isn't claiming precision down to the percentage point.
SMU
61%
Florida State
39%
Florida State 90% CI: 30% – 48% Δ rating 6.2
SMU is the model's favorite at 61%. Florida State has a 39% path. Home-field adjustment of +2.6 rating points baked in for Florida State — venue-specific learned value (n=55 games).
Style fit
How each offense matches up against the opposite defense. Higher = the offense is expected to do well; mismatches show up here.
SMU offense
38 / 100
Style-neutral matchup
Florida State offense
30 / 100
Style-neutral matchup
Weather at kickoff
Forecast not yet available — Open-Meteo provides a 16-day window. Check back closer to kickoff.
Game info
- Kickoff
- Sunday, September 6, 2026 · 11:00 PM CDT
- Venue
- Doak Campbell Stadium
- Conference game
- Yes
- Neutral site
- No