Conference game
SMU at Florida State
Monday, September 7, 2026 · 7:30 PM EDT
Final score
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 SMU Winner | 7 | 10 | 0 | 10 | 27 |
 Florida State | 7 | 3 | 7 | 7 | 24 |
GIE pre-game call: SMU at 68%. Hit
Pre-game
GIE win probability
SMU 68% Favorite
Florida State 32% Underdog
SMU is the model's favorite at 68%. Florida State has a 32% path. Home-field adjustment of +4.1 rating points baked in for Florida State — venue-specific night-game value (n=54 games).
Headline numbers below. The 90% confidence band reflects rating uncertainty (±1.5 points per side); the model isn't claiming precision down to the percentage point.
Recaps
- SMU recap SMU: 2026 Week 12 recap SMU sits at 18th overall with a 7–2 record and a rating of 15.8, up 2.4 points from last week following a dominant 51–28 home win over Virginia Tech in Week 10. The Mustangs have momentum, but the underlying picture reveals constraint: a…
- Florida State recap Florida State: 2026 Week 12 recap Florida State sits at 4–5 after a road win at Boston College that did little to move the needle: GIE dipped the Seminoles from 5.8 to 5.5, leaving them ranked 49th. The victory itself was real—31 points away from home—but the model's…