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Oregon State

Beavers · Pac-12

Head coach Trent Bray Year 2 with Oregon State

Year-2 HCs (2015-2024) averaged +0.09 W vs SP+ expected · n=47

Season Projection · 2026 W0

10,000 sims
2.7
Expected wins
3-6
Proj record
0 to 6
Win range (90%)
#124 (106–134)
Final rank (90%)
0%
Make playoff
0%
Win conference

Path to Glory

Tap a win or a loss on each pivotal game to see how the playoff probability shifts. Leave any game unset to average across both outcomes.

Make the playoff

0%

Baseline projection.

  • at UTEP
    Away · Sep 27
  • at Colorado State
    Away · Oct 3
  • vs Washington State
    Home · Oct 17
  • vs Texas State
    Home · Nov 8

Pivotal games are the 5 with the largest playoff-probability swing, ranked by the model. Math: chained Bayesian log-odds update from the conditional simulation set; gets the directionally right answer but won't perfectly capture cross-game correlations until the full Monte Carlo pipeline lands.

Returning production · 2025

59 PCI
  • Quarterback 33% (2/6 players)
  • Offensive line 74% (14/19 players)
  • Skill (RB/WR/TE) 66% (19/29 players)
  • Front 7 (DL/LB) 77% (23/30 players)
  • Secondary 65% (13/20 players)
  • Special teams 60% (6/10 players)

PCI weights returning production by position group (QB/OL heaviest). 70%+ is healthy continuity; 45-70% is a normal rebuild; below 45% is a meaningful turnover.

If QB1 is out (Maalik Murphy)

GIE projects a -0.5 rating drop and a -2.1pp shift in playoff probability if Oregon State loses its QB1 for an extended stretch. (n=2 historical samples; pooled across recent seasons.)

Situational efficiency · 2025

FBS percentile rank
  • 3rd-down conversion 37.2% 52th — average
  • Red-zone TD rate 18.6% 82th — strong
  • 4th-down aggression 30.3% 22th — bottom tier
  • Late & close 5.7 yds/play 67th — average

Percentile is across all FBS teams with play-by-play data for the season. "Late & close" is yards per play in Q4+ with a one-score margin — a proxy for clutch offensive performance.

Schedule

Full 2026 slate. Tap a row for the matchup breakdown.

Latest Stories

  • Recap

    Oregon State: 2025 Week 16 recap

    Oregon State sits at 2–10 after a 32–8 road loss to Washington State in Week 14, dropping the Beavers to a rating of –15.9 and a ranking of 126th nationally. The blowout defeat underscores a season defined by offensive struggles and…

More coming

Per-team pages get the full treatment in Phase 3: current rating, season projection histogram, schedule with win probabilities, and live overlays on Pylon stream days. For now, this page exists so stories and news have a permanent home as content rolls in.