Wolf Pack · Mountain West
Year-3 HCs (2015-2024) averaged -0.10 W vs. preseason expectation
Tap a win or a loss on each pivotal game to see how the playoff probability shifts. Leave any game unset to average across both outcomes.
Make the playoff
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Baseline projection.
Pivotal games are the 5 with the largest playoff-probability swing, ranked by the model. Math: chained Bayesian log-odds update from the conditional simulation set; gets the directionally right answer but won't perfectly capture cross-game correlations until the full Monte Carlo pipeline lands.
Share of last season's production each unit returns. Higher means more continuity: 70%+ is healthy, 45–70% a normal rebuild, under 45% a major turnover.
17 proven transfers in, carrying the production below from their prior school.
Impact scores offensive skill additions (QB/RB/WR/TE) — prior-season production normalized within position (100 ≈ a 90th-percentile producer at that spot) and discounted for non-FBS competition, so a top back counts alongside a top quarterback. Defensive and O-line additions count as transfers but aren't box-score measurable, so they carry no impact score. The rating figure is this class's portal contribution vs. the FBS average, capped at ±2.5.
GIE projects a -0.1 rating drop and a -0.5pp shift in playoff probability if Nevada loses its QB1 for an extended stretch. (n=3 historical samples; pooled across recent seasons.)
Percentile is across all FBS teams with play-by-play data for the season. "Late & close" is yards per play in Q4+ with a one-score margin — a proxy for clutch offensive performance.
Full 2026 slate. Tap a row for the matchup breakdown.
Nevada sits at 108th in GIE's ratings after a dominant 49–14 win over Western Kentucky in Week 1, but the rating hasn't budged since—a sign the model views that result as baseline rather than transformative. The Wolf Pack's red-zone…
Nevada jumped 61 ELO points in one week. That's not a typo. They opened 2026 by dismantling Western Kentucky 49-14 at home—the kind of statement blowout that rewrites a program's projection. They're now modeling for 5.7 expected wins.…
Nevada jumped 61 ELO points after dismantling Western Kentucky 49-14 in Week 1, the kind of single-week surge that typically arrives only when a heavy favorite demolishes an overmatched opponent. The Wolf Pack entered the season at 1332;…
Nevada sits at 3–9 after a 42–17 home loss to UNLV in Week 14, a result that underscores the Wolf Pack's struggles this season. The team's current GIE rating of –13.4 places them at 116th nationally, reflecting a roster that has…
Per-team pages get the full treatment in Phase 3: current rating, season projection histogram, schedule with win probabilities, and live overlays on Pylon stream days. For now, this page exists so stories and news have a permanent home as content rolls in.
