Nevada

Wolf Pack · Mountain West

Head coach Jeff Choate Year 2 with Nevada

Year-2 HCs (2015-2024) averaged +0.09 W vs SP+ expected · n=47

Season Projection · 2026 W0

10,000 sims

4.5

Expected wins

4-8

Proj record

1 to 8

Win range (90%)

#116 (94–132)

Final rank (90%)

Make playoff

Win conference

Path to Glory

Tap a win or a loss on each pivotal game to see how the playoff probability shifts. Leave any game unset to average across both outcomes.

Make the playoff

Baseline projection.

vs Western Kentucky

Home · Sep 6
vs Montana State

Home · Sep 13
at Middle Tennessee

Away · Sep 19
at UTEP

Away · Oct 10

Pivotal games are the 5 with the largest playoff-probability swing, ranked by the model. Math: chained Bayesian log-odds update from the conditional simulation set; gets the directionally right answer but won't perfectly capture cross-game correlations until the full Monte Carlo pipeline lands.

Returning production · 2025

45 PCI

Quarterback 50% (3/6 players)
Offensive line 53% (9/17 players)
Skill (RB/WR/TE) 52% (16/31 players)
Front 7 (DL/LB) 42% (13/31 players)
Secondary 16% (3/19 players)
Special teams 17% (1/6 players)

PCI weights returning production by position group (QB/OL heaviest). 70%+ is healthy continuity; 45-70% is a normal rebuild; below 45% is a meaningful turnover.

If QB1 is out (Carter Jones)

GIE projects a -0.1 rating drop and a -0.5pp shift in playoff probability if Nevada loses its QB1 for an extended stretch. (n=3 historical samples; pooled across recent seasons.)

Situational efficiency · 2025

FBS percentile rank

3rd-down conversion 29.6% 15th — bottom tier
Red-zone TD rate 12.2% 27th — below avg
4th-down aggression 36.4% 50th — average
Late & close 4.8 yds/play 40th — below avg

Percentile is across all FBS teams with play-by-play data for the season. "Late & close" is yards per play in Q4+ with a one-score margin — a proxy for clutch offensive performance.

Schedule

Full 2026 slate. Tap a row for the matchup breakdown.

Latest Stories

Recap May 9, 2026

Nevada: 2025 Week 16 recap

Nevada sits at 3–9 after a 42–17 home loss to UNLV in Week 14, a result that underscores the Wolf Pack's struggles this season. The team's current GIE rating of –13.4 places them at 116th nationally, reflecting a roster that has…

More coming

Per-team pages get the full treatment in Phase 3: current rating, season projection histogram, schedule with win probabilities, and live overlays on Pylon stream days. For now, this page exists so stories and news have a permanent home as content rolls in.