2026 Week 7 · Conference game
Nevada at North Dakota State
Saturday, October 17, 2026 · 11:00 PM UTC
Fargodome
Nevada
Mountain West
- Record
- 1-2
- Rating
- -9.6
- National rank
- 108
- Proj. wins
- 4.8
- Playoff prob.
- 0%
North Dakota State
Mountain West
- Record
- 4-0
- Rating
- 10.6
- National rank
- 35
- Proj. wins
- 10.2
- Playoff prob.
- 58%
GIE win probability
Headline numbers below. The 90% confidence band reflects rating uncertainty (±1.5 points per side); the model isn't claiming precision down to the percentage point.
Nevada
6%
North Dakota State
94%
North Dakota State 90% CI: 92% – 96% Δ rating 20.2
North Dakota State is the model's favorite at 94%. Nevada has a 6% path. League-prior home-field adjustment of +2.5 rating points baked in for North Dakota State.
Style fit
How each offense matches up against the opposite defense. Higher = the offense is expected to do well; mismatches show up here.
Nevada offense
25 / 100
Style-neutral matchup
North Dakota State offense
35 / 100
Run offense vs. elite run defense — bad matchup
Weather at kickoff
Forecast not yet available — Open-Meteo provides a 16-day window. Check back closer to kickoff.
Game info
- Kickoff
- Saturday, October 17, 2026 · 11:00 PM UTC
- Venue
- Fargodome
- Conference game
- Yes
- Neutral site
- No