2026 Week 3
Nevada at Middle Tennessee
Friday, September 18, 2026 · 11:00 PM CDT
Johnny "Red" Floyd Stadium
Nevada
Mountain West
- Record
- 0-0
- Rating
- -13.4
- National rank
- 116
- Proj. wins
- 4.4
- Playoff prob.
- 0%
Middle Tennessee
Conference USA
- Record
- 0-0
- Rating
- -16.0
- National rank
- 127
- Proj. wins
- 1.0
- Playoff prob.
- 0%
GIE win probability
Headline numbers below. The 90% confidence band reflects rating uncertainty (±1.5 points per side); the model isn't claiming precision down to the percentage point.
Nevada
50%
Middle Tennessee
50%
Middle Tennessee 90% CI: 40% – 59% Δ rating 2.6
Nevada is the model's favorite at 50%. Middle Tennessee has a 50% path. Home-field adjustment of +2.5 rating points baked in for Middle Tennessee — venue-specific learned value (n=46 games).
Style fit
How each offense matches up against the opposite defense. Higher = the offense is expected to do well; mismatches show up here.
Nevada offense
39 / 100
Style-neutral matchup
Middle Tennessee offense
40 / 100
Style-neutral matchup
Weather at kickoff
Forecast not yet available — Open-Meteo provides a 16-day window. Check back closer to kickoff.
Game info
- Kickoff
- Friday, September 18, 2026 · 11:00 PM CDT
- Venue
- Johnny "Red" Floyd Stadium
- Conference game
- No
- Neutral site
- No