Blue Raiders · Conference USA
Head coach Derek Mason Year 3 with Middle Tennessee
Year-3 HCs (2015-2024) averaged -0.10 W vs. preseason expectation
No remaining game changes Middle Tennessee's playoff odds. Make playoff 0%
Full 2026 slate. Tap a row for the matchup breakdown.
| Week | Opponent | Result or win prob.Result or win probability |
|---|---|---|
| Wk 1 Sep 5 | vs Murray State Non-FBS | Win, 38-14 Final |
| Wk 2 Sep 12 | at Marshall Sun Belt | Loss, 26-28 Final |
| Wk 3 Sep 19 | vs Nevada Mountain West | Win, 27-20 Final |
| Wk 4 Sep 26 | at Jacksonville State Conference USA | Loss, 13-23 Final |
| Wk 5 Oct 3 | at Kansas Big 12 | Loss, 0-55 Final |
| Wk 6 | Bye | |
| Wk 7 Oct 13 | vs Delaware Conference USA | Win, 33-30 Final |
| Wk 8 Oct 20 | at Florida International Conference USA | Win, 26-23 Final |
| Wk 9 Oct 28 | vs Kennesaw State Conference USA | Loss, 28-44 Final |
| Wk 10 Nov 7 | vs Western Kentucky Conference USA | Win, 51-42 Final |
| Wk 11 Nov 14 | at Liberty Conference USA | |
| Wk 12 Nov 21 | at Sam Houston Conference USA | |
| Wk 13 Nov 28 | vs New Mexico State Conference USA | |
More coming. Per-team pages get the full treatment in Phase 3: current rating, season projection histogram, schedule with win probabilities, and live overlays on Pylon stream days. For now, this page exists so stories and news have a permanent home as content rolls in.
GIE projects a 4.7 rating drop and a 18.8pp shift in playoff probability if Middle Tennessee loses its QB1 for an extended stretch. (n=3 historical samples; pooled across recent seasons.)
37 score
Share of last season's production each unit returns. Higher means more continuity: 70%+ is healthy, 45–70% a normal rebuild, under 45% a major turnover.
−1.3 rating
16 proven transfers in, carrying the production below from their prior school.
| Player | From | Impact |
|---|---|---|
| Antonio MartinRB From Kansas State | Kansas State | 18 |
| Gumbo GaskinsS From Samford | Samford | 16 |
| Ricky LeeCB From Sacramento State | Sacramento State | 15 |
| Aidan SingletonCB From Lehigh | Lehigh | 15 |
| Ashton TaylorLB From Jackson State | Jackson State | 15 |
| Kaven CallLB From East Tennessee State | East Tennessee State | 8 |
Impact scores offensive skill additions (QB/RB/WR/TE) — prior-season production normalized within position (100 ≈ a 90th-percentile producer at that spot) and discounted for non-FBS competition, so a top back counts alongside a top quarterback. Defensive and O-line additions count as transfers but aren't box-score measurable, so they carry no impact score. The rating figure is this class's portal contribution vs. the FBS average, capped at ±2.5.
Percentile is across all FBS teams with play-by-play data for the season. "Late & close" is yards per play in Q4+ with a one-score margin — a proxy for clutch offensive performance.
