2026 Week 4 · Conference game
Air Force at Nevada
Sunday, September 27, 2026 · 2:30 AM UTC
Mackay Stadium
Air Force
Mountain West
- Record
- 1-1
- Rating
- -2.8
- National rank
- 81
- Proj. wins
- 6.4
- Playoff prob.
- 0%
Nevada
Mountain West
- Record
- 1-2
- Rating
- -9.6
- National rank
- 108
- Proj. wins
- 4.8
- Playoff prob.
- 0%
GIE win probability
Headline numbers below. The 90% confidence band reflects rating uncertainty (±1.5 points per side); the model isn't claiming precision down to the percentage point.
Air Force
56%
Nevada
44%
Nevada 90% CI: 35% – 53% Δ rating 6.8
Air Force is the model's favorite at 56%. Nevada has a 44% path. Home-field adjustment of +4.8 rating points baked in for Nevada — venue-specific learned value (n=50 games).
Style fit
How each offense matches up against the opposite defense. Higher = the offense is expected to do well; mismatches show up here.
Air Force offense
31 / 100
Run offense vs. elite run defense — bad matchup
Nevada offense
47 / 100
Style-neutral matchup
Weather at kickoff
Conditions
Overcast
Temperature
59°F
Precipitation
0%
Wind
3 mph
Game info
- Kickoff
- Sunday, September 27, 2026 · 2:30 AM UTC
- Venue
- Mackay Stadium
- Conference game
- Yes
- Neutral site
- No