Bears · Conference USA
Head coach Casey Woods Year 1 with Missouri State
Year-1 HCs (2015-2024) averaged -0.19 W vs. preseason expectation
No remaining game changes Missouri State's playoff odds. Make playoff 0%
Full 2026 slate. Tap a row for the matchup breakdown.
| Week | Opponent | Result or win prob.Result or win probability |
|---|---|---|
| Wk 1 Sep 5 | at Texas A&M SEC | Loss, 0-50 Final |
| Wk 2 Sep 12 | vs Lindenwood Non-FBS | Win, 48-14 Final |
| Wk 3 Sep 19 | vs Marshall Sun Belt | Loss, 24-30 Final |
| Wk 4 Sep 27 | at SMU ACC | Loss, 24-34 Final |
| Wk 5 | Bye | |
| Wk 6 Oct 8 | at Western Kentucky Conference USA | Loss, 13-34 Final |
| Wk 7 Oct 14 | vs Kennesaw State Conference USA | Win, 24-21 Final |
| Wk 8 Oct 20 | at Delaware Conference USA | Loss, 38-61 Final |
| Wk 9 Oct 28 | vs Sam Houston Conference USA | Win, 24-3 Final |
| Wk 10 Nov 7 | at Florida International Conference USA | Loss, 20-23 Final |
| Wk 11 Nov 14 | vs New Mexico State Conference USA | |
| Wk 12 Nov 21 | at Jacksonville State Conference USA | |
| Wk 13 Nov 28 | vs Liberty Conference USA | |
More coming. Per-team pages get the full treatment in Phase 3: current rating, season projection histogram, schedule with win probabilities, and live overlays on Pylon stream days. For now, this page exists so stories and news have a permanent home as content rolls in.
GIE projects a 1.5 rating drop and a 6.0pp shift in playoff probability if Missouri State loses its QB1 for an extended stretch. (n=1 historical samples; pooled across recent seasons.)
31 score
Share of last season's production each unit returns. Higher means more continuity: 70%+ is healthy, 45–70% a normal rebuild, under 45% a major turnover.
−1.1 rating
16 proven transfers in, carrying the production below from their prior school.
| Player | From | Impact |
|---|---|---|
| Skyler LocklearQB From UTEP | UTEP | 76 |
| Joel BoamahCB From Kent State | Kent State | 49 |
| Malachi MadisonDL From Massachusetts | Massachusetts | 26 |
| Josh LukusaDE From Miami (OH) | Miami (OH) | 18 |
| Stratton ShufeltLB From UTEP | UTEP | 15 |
| Mekhi MillerWR From Tulsa | Tulsa | 11 |
Impact scores offensive skill additions (QB/RB/WR/TE) — prior-season production normalized within position (100 ≈ a 90th-percentile producer at that spot) and discounted for non-FBS competition, so a top back counts alongside a top quarterback. Defensive and O-line additions count as transfers but aren't box-score measurable, so they carry no impact score. The rating figure is this class's portal contribution vs. the FBS average, capped at ±2.5.
Percentile is across all FBS teams with play-by-play data for the season. "Late & close" is yards per play in Q4+ with a one-score margin — a proxy for clutch offensive performance.
