Maryland

Terrapins · Big Ten

Head coach Mike Locksley Year 7 with Maryland

Season Projection · 2026 W0

10,000 sims

5.5

Expected wins

5-7

Proj record

2 to 9

Win range (90%)

#72 (46–96)

Final rank (90%)

Make playoff

Win conference

Path to Glory

Tap a win or a loss on each pivotal game to see how the playoff probability shifts. Leave any game unset to average across both outcomes.

Make the playoff

Baseline projection.

vs Penn State

Home · Nov 28
at Nebraska

Away · Oct 3
at UConn

Away · Sep 12
vs Illinois

Home · Oct 31
at Purdue

Away · Nov 7

Pivotal games are the 5 with the largest playoff-probability swing, ranked by the model. Math: chained Bayesian log-odds update from the conditional simulation set; gets the directionally right answer but won't perfectly capture cross-game correlations until the full Monte Carlo pipeline lands.

Returning production · 2025

45 PCI

Quarterback 29% (2/7 players)
Offensive line 50% (9/18 players)
Skill (RB/WR/TE) 44% (14/32 players)
Front 7 (DL/LB) 61% (17/28 players)
Secondary 50% (13/26 players)
Special teams 75% (6/8 players)

PCI weights returning production by position group (QB/OL heaviest). 70%+ is healthy continuity; 45-70% is a normal rebuild; below 45% is a meaningful turnover.

Situational efficiency · 2025

FBS percentile rank

3rd-down conversion 39.6% 67th — average
Red-zone TD rate 8.4% 11th — bottom tier
4th-down aggression 37.5% 57th — average
Late & close 4.0 yds/play 22th — bottom tier

Percentile is across all FBS teams with play-by-play data for the season. "Late & close" is yards per play in Q4+ with a one-score margin — a proxy for clutch offensive performance.

Schedule

Full 2026 slate. Tap a row for the matchup breakdown.

Latest Stories

Recap May 9, 2026

Maryland: 2025 Week 16 recap

Maryland sits at 4–8 after a 38–28 road loss to Michigan State in Week 14, holding a 0.6 rating and ranking 75th in GIE's assessment. The defeat underscored the Terrapins' offensive struggles—they've been unable to consistently move the…

More coming

Per-team pages get the full treatment in Phase 3: current rating, season projection histogram, schedule with win probabilities, and live overlays on Pylon stream days. For now, this page exists so stories and news have a permanent home as content rolls in.