Thundering Herd · Sun Belt
Year-2 HCs (2015-2024) averaged +0.09 W vs. preseason expectation
Their playoff probability after a win or a loss in each pivotal game. (Interactive toggles coming once the scenario sim finishes for this team.)
Share of last season's production each unit returns. Higher means more continuity: 70%+ is healthy, 45–70% a normal rebuild, under 45% a major turnover.
23 proven transfers in, carrying the production below from their prior school.
Impact scores offensive skill additions (QB/RB/WR/TE) — prior-season production normalized within position (100 ≈ a 90th-percentile producer at that spot) and discounted for non-FBS competition, so a top back counts alongside a top quarterback. Defensive and O-line additions count as transfers but aren't box-score measurable, so they carry no impact score. The rating figure is this class's portal contribution vs. the FBS average, capped at ±2.5.
GIE projects a 0.2 rating drop and a 0.7pp shift in playoff probability if Marshall loses its QB1 for an extended stretch. (n=1 historical samples; pooled across recent seasons.)
Percentile is across all FBS teams with play-by-play data for the season. "Late & close" is yards per play in Q4+ with a one-score margin — a proxy for clutch offensive performance.
Full 2026 slate. Tap a row for the matchup breakdown.
Marshall sits at 0–1 and rated 98th nationally after a shutout loss to Penn State in Week 1. The Thundering Herd haven't moved in GIE's estimation—the rating remains flat—which suggests the model saw the outcome as predictable rather than…
Marshall sits at 5–7 after a 24–19 home loss to Georgia Southern in Week 14, dropping the Thundering Herd to a GIE rating of –4.5 and a ranking of 86th nationally. The defeat underscored persistent offensive struggles—Marshall managed…
Per-team pages get the full treatment in Phase 3: current rating, season projection histogram, schedule with win probabilities, and live overlays on Pylon stream days. For now, this page exists so stories and news have a permanent home as content rolls in.
