2026 Week 5 · Conference game
Marshall at James Madison
Saturday, October 3, 2026 · 7:45 PM UTC
Bridgeforth Stadium
Marshall
Sun Belt
- Record
- 3-1
- Rating
- -11.0
- National rank
- 110
- Proj. wins
- 7.5
- Playoff prob.
- 0%
James Madison
Sun Belt
- Record
- 4-0
- Rating
- 6.2
- National rank
- 50
- Proj. wins
- 10.2
- Playoff prob.
- 67%
GIE win probability
Headline numbers below. The 90% confidence band reflects rating uncertainty (±1.5 points per side); the model isn't claiming precision down to the percentage point.
Marshall
6%
James Madison
94%
James Madison 90% CI: 91% – 96% Δ rating 17.2
James Madison is the model's favorite at 94%. Marshall has a 6% path. Home-field adjustment of +4.3 rating points baked in for James Madison — venue-specific learned value (n=21 games).
Style fit
How each offense matches up against the opposite defense. Higher = the offense is expected to do well; mismatches show up here.
Marshall offense
25 / 100
Style-neutral matchup
James Madison offense
39 / 100
Style-neutral matchup
Weather at kickoff
Conditions
Overcast
Temperature
53°F
Precipitation
26%
Wind
7 mph
Game info
- Kickoff
- Saturday, October 3, 2026 · 7:45 PM UTC
- Venue
- Bridgeforth Stadium
- Conference game
- Yes
- Neutral site
- No