2026 Week 5 · Conference game
Marshall at James Madison
Saturday, October 3, 2026 · 4:00 AM UTC
Bridgeforth Stadium
Marshall
Sun Belt
- Record
- 0-0
- Rating
- -4.5
- National rank
- 86
- Proj. wins
- 0.6
- Playoff prob.
- 0%
James Madison
Sun Belt
- Record
- 0-0
- Rating
- 12.3
- National rank
- 27
- Proj. wins
- 1.8
- Playoff prob.
- 1%
GIE win probability
Headline numbers below. The 90% confidence band reflects rating uncertainty (±1.5 points per side); the model isn't claiming precision down to the percentage point.
Marshall
7%
James Madison
93%
James Madison 90% CI: 91% – 95% Δ rating 16.8
James Madison is the model's favorite at 93%. Marshall has a 7% path. Home-field adjustment of +4.3 rating points baked in for James Madison — venue-specific learned value (n=21 games).
Style fit
How each offense matches up against the opposite defense. Higher = the offense is expected to do well; mismatches show up here.
Marshall offense
25 / 100
Style-neutral matchup
James Madison offense
39 / 100
Style-neutral matchup
Weather at kickoff
Forecast not yet available — Open-Meteo provides a 16-day window. Check back closer to kickoff.
Game info
- Kickoff
- Saturday, October 3, 2026 · 4:00 AM UTC
- Venue
- Bridgeforth Stadium
- Conference game
- Yes
- Neutral site
- No