2026 Week 1
Marshall at Penn State
Friday, September 4, 2026 · 11:00 PM CDT
Beaver Stadium
Marshall
Sun Belt
- Record
- 0-0
- Rating
- -4.5
- National rank
- 86
- Proj. wins
- 0.6
- Playoff prob.
- 0%
Penn State
Big Ten
- Record
- 0-0
- Rating
- 18.1
- National rank
- 15
- Proj. wins
- 9.0
- Playoff prob.
- 35%
GIE win probability
Headline numbers below. The 90% confidence band reflects rating uncertainty (±1.5 points per side); the model isn't claiming precision down to the percentage point.
Marshall
4%
Penn State
96%
Penn State 90% CI: 94% – 97% Δ rating 22.6
Penn State is the model's favorite at 96%. Marshall has a 4% path. Home-field adjustment of +2.0 rating points baked in for Penn State — venue-specific learned value (n=65 games).
Style fit
How each offense matches up against the opposite defense. Higher = the offense is expected to do well; mismatches show up here.
Marshall offense
34 / 100
Style-neutral matchup
Penn State offense
40 / 100
Style-neutral matchup
Weather at kickoff
Forecast not yet available — Open-Meteo provides a 16-day window. Check back closer to kickoff.
Game info
- Kickoff
- Friday, September 4, 2026 · 11:00 PM CDT
- Venue
- Beaver Stadium
- Conference game
- No
- Neutral site
- No