Owls · Conference USA
Year-2 HCs (2015-2024) averaged +0.09 W vs. preseason expectation
Tap a win or a loss on each pivotal game to see how the playoff probability shifts. Leave any game unset to average across both outcomes.
Make the playoff
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Baseline projection.
Pivotal games are the 5 with the largest playoff-probability swing, ranked by the model. Math: chained Bayesian log-odds update from the conditional simulation set; gets the directionally right answer but won't perfectly capture cross-game correlations until the full Monte Carlo pipeline lands.
Share of last season's production each unit returns. Higher means more continuity: 70%+ is healthy, 45–70% a normal rebuild, under 45% a major turnover.
26 proven transfers in, carrying the production below from their prior school.
Impact scores offensive skill additions (QB/RB/WR/TE) — prior-season production normalized within position (100 ≈ a 90th-percentile producer at that spot) and discounted for non-FBS competition, so a top back counts alongside a top quarterback. Defensive and O-line additions count as transfers but aren't box-score measurable, so they carry no impact score. The rating figure is this class's portal contribution vs. the FBS average, capped at ±2.5.
GIE projects a 4.5 rating drop and a 18.0pp shift in playoff probability if Kennesaw State loses its QB1 for an extended stretch. (n=2 historical samples; pooled across recent seasons.)
Percentile is across all FBS teams with play-by-play data for the season. "Late & close" is yards per play in Q4+ with a one-score margin — a proxy for clutch offensive performance.
Full 2026 slate. Tap a row for the matchup breakdown.
Kennesaw State sits at 1–0 after demolishing West Georgia 47–0 in Week 1, but GIE's rating hasn't budged—a -12.9 that keeps them ranked 113th nationally. The shutout masks some underlying inefficiency: a red-zone TD rate of just 14%…
Kennesaw State jumped 42 ELO points in one week. A 47-0 demolition of West Georgia will do that. The Owls aren't suddenly elite—but they're no longer the FCS program that shows up to get humbled. Seven wins is the modal outcome now.…
Kennesaw State's 47-0 win over West Georgia moved the model's rating by 42 Elo points—a jump substantial enough to suggest the Owls belong in a different tier than preseason projections implied.
Kennesaw State jumped 42 ELO points in a week. One 47-0 home demolition. The Owls went from "who?" to a 7.8-win expectation — a real tier shift. That's not noise. That's a statement about scheme fit, depth, or both. Week 1 blowouts often…
Kennesaw State's rating jumped 42 Elo points following a 47-0 shutout of West Georgia in Week 1, landing the Owls at 1474 and a modal outcome of eight wins for the 2026 season.
Kennesaw State sits at No. 89 overall with a 10–4 record after a road win over Jacksonville State last week, 19–15. The Owls' rating stands at –5.4, positioning them solidly in the middle tier of FBS competition. That defensive grind in…
Per-team pages get the full treatment in Phase 3: current rating, season projection histogram, schedule with win probabilities, and live overlays on Pylon stream days. For now, this page exists so stories and news have a permanent home as content rolls in.
