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Kennesaw State

Owls · Conference USA

Head coach Jerry Mack Year 1 with Kennesaw State

Year-1 HCs (2015-2024) averaged -0.19 W vs SP+ expected · n=83

Season Projection · 2026 W0

10,000 sims
6.8
Expected wins
7-5
Proj record
4 to 10
Win range (90%)
#88 (64–112)
Final rank (90%)
0%
Make playoff
21%
Win conference

Path to Glory

Tap a win or a loss on each pivotal game to see how the playoff probability shifts. Leave any game unset to average across both outcomes.

Make the playoff

0%

Baseline projection.

  • vs West Georgia
    Home · Sep 3
  • at Arkansas State
    Away · Sep 26
  • vs Jacksonville State
    Home · Oct 7
  • at Missouri State
    Away · Oct 14

Pivotal games are the 5 with the largest playoff-probability swing, ranked by the model. Math: chained Bayesian log-odds update from the conditional simulation set; gets the directionally right answer but won't perfectly capture cross-game correlations until the full Monte Carlo pipeline lands.

Returning production · 2025

29 PCI
  • Quarterback 20% (1/5 players)
  • Offensive line 17% (4/24 players)
  • Skill (RB/WR/TE) 35% (11/31 players)
  • Front 7 (DL/LB) 42% (16/38 players)
  • Secondary 39% (7/18 players)
  • Special teams 38% (3/8 players)

PCI weights returning production by position group (QB/OL heaviest). 70%+ is healthy continuity; 45-70% is a normal rebuild; below 45% is a meaningful turnover.

If QB1 is out (Amari Odom)

GIE projects a 4.5 rating drop and a 18.0pp shift in playoff probability if Kennesaw State loses its QB1 for an extended stretch. (n=2 historical samples; pooled across recent seasons.)

Situational efficiency · 2025

FBS percentile rank
  • 3rd-down conversion 37.9% 58th — average
  • Red-zone TD rate 14.3% 45th — average
  • 4th-down aggression 36.7% 53th — average
  • Late & close 5.1 yds/play 51th — average

Percentile is across all FBS teams with play-by-play data for the season. "Late & close" is yards per play in Q4+ with a one-score margin — a proxy for clutch offensive performance.

More coming

Per-team pages get the full treatment in Phase 3: current rating, season projection histogram, schedule with win probabilities, and live overlays on Pylon stream days. For now, this page exists so stories and news have a permanent home as content rolls in.