Syracuse
Orange · ACC
Year-3 HCs (2015-2024) averaged -0.10 W vs. preseason expectation
Season Projection · 2026 W0
10,000 simsPath to Glory
Tap a win or a loss on each pivotal game to see how the playoff probability shifts. Leave any game unset to average across both outcomes.
Make the playoff
0%
Baseline projection.
- vs New HampshireHome · Sep 5
-
vs CaliforniaHome · Sep 12 -
at North CarolinaAway · Oct 24 -
at Boston CollegeAway · Nov 21
Pivotal games are the 5 with the largest playoff-probability swing, ranked by the model. Math: chained Bayesian log-odds update from the conditional simulation set; gets the directionally right answer but won't perfectly capture cross-game correlations until the full Monte Carlo pipeline lands.
Returning production · 2026
- Quarterback 57% (3/6 )
- Offensive line 71% (17/24 players)
- Skill (RB/WR/TE) 13% (13/33 )
- Front 7 (DL/LB) 41% (14/32 )
- Secondary 72% (13/22 )
- Special teams 9% (3/8 )
Share of last season's production each unit returns. Higher means more continuity: 70%+ is healthy, 45–70% a normal rebuild, under 45% a major turnover.
Portal additions · 2026
19 proven transfers in, carrying the production below from their prior school.
- Tunmise Adeleye DL ← UNLV 176 impact
- Noah Meyers TE ← Western Kentucky 140 impact
- Amari Odom QB ← Kennesaw State 122 impact
- Cole Weaver WR ← Miami (OH) 117 impact
- Nazir Ward DB ← Western Kentucky 98 impact
- Jartavius Flounoy DL ← Georgia State 96 impact
Impact scores offensive skill additions (QB/RB/WR/TE) — prior-season production normalized within position (100 ≈ a 90th-percentile producer at that spot) and discounted for non-FBS competition, so a top back counts alongside a top quarterback. Defensive and O-line additions count as transfers but aren't box-score measurable, so they carry no impact score. The rating figure is this class's portal contribution vs. the FBS average, capped at ±2.5.
GIE projects a -8.1 rating drop and a -32.2pp shift in playoff probability if Syracuse loses its QB1 for an extended stretch. (n=5 historical samples; pooled across recent seasons.)
Situational efficiency · 2025
FBS percentile rank- 3rd-down conversion 29.8% 15th — bottom tier
- Red-zone TD rate 7.9% 11th — bottom tier
- 4th-down aggression 41.0% 70th — strong
- Late & close 8.2 yds/play 96th — elite
Percentile is across all FBS teams with play-by-play data for the season. "Late & close" is yards per play in Q4+ with a one-score margin — a proxy for clutch offensive performance.
Schedule
Full 2026 slate. Tap a row for the matchup breakdown.
- Wk 1Sep 5vsNew Hampshire—
- Wk 2Sep 12
vsCaliforniaACC28%Win prob - Wk 3Sep 17
atPittsburghACC5%Win prob - Wk 5Oct 3
atUConnFBS Independents7%Win prob - Wk 6Oct 10
atVirginiaACC3%Win prob - Wk 7Oct 17
vsLouisvilleACC5%Win prob - Wk 8Oct 24
atNorth CarolinaACC25%Win prob - Wk 9Oct 31
vsSMUACC5%Win prob - Wk 10Nov 7
vsClemsonACC7%Win prob - Wk 11Nov 14
atNC StateACC7%Win prob - Wk 12Nov 21
atBoston CollegeACC29%Win prob - Wk 13Nov 28
vsNotre DameFBS Independents1%Win prob
Latest Stories
More coming
Per-team pages get the full treatment in Phase 3: current rating, season projection histogram, schedule with win probabilities, and live overlays on Pylon stream days. For now, this page exists so stories and news have a permanent home as content rolls in.