4thand4cast

Search the site.

Try , , or .

Powered by Pagefind

Syracuse

Orange · ACC

Head coach Fran Brown Year 3 with Syracuse

Year-3 HCs (2015-2024) averaged -0.10 W vs. preseason expectation

Season Projection · 2026 W0

10,000 sims
2.5
Expected wins
3-7
Proj record
0 to 5
Win range (90%)
#119 (100–131)
Final rank (90%)
0%
Make playoff
0%
Win conference

Path to Glory

Tap a win or a loss on each pivotal game to see how the playoff probability shifts. Leave any game unset to average across both outcomes.

Make the playoff

0%

Baseline projection.

  • vs New Hampshire
    Home · Sep 5
  • vs California
    Home · Sep 12
  • at North Carolina
    Away · Oct 24
  • at Boston College
    Away · Nov 21

Pivotal games are the 5 with the largest playoff-probability swing, ranked by the model. Math: chained Bayesian log-odds update from the conditional simulation set; gets the directionally right answer but won't perfectly capture cross-game correlations until the full Monte Carlo pipeline lands.

Returning production · 2026

48 score
  • Quarterback 57% (3/6 )
  • Offensive line 71% (17/24 players)
  • Skill (RB/WR/TE) 13% (13/33 )
  • Front 7 (DL/LB) 41% (14/32 )
  • Secondary 72% (13/22 )
  • Special teams 9% (3/8 )

Share of last season's production each unit returns. Higher means more continuity: 70%+ is healthy, 45–70% a normal rebuild, under 45% a major turnover.

Portal additions · 2026

+1.3 rating

19 proven transfers in, carrying the production below from their prior school.

  • Tunmise Adeleye DL ← UNLV 176 impact
  • Noah Meyers TE ← Western Kentucky 140 impact
  • Amari Odom QB ← Kennesaw State 122 impact
  • Cole Weaver WR ← Miami (OH) 117 impact
  • Nazir Ward DB ← Western Kentucky 98 impact
  • Jartavius Flounoy DL ← Georgia State 96 impact

Impact scores offensive skill additions (QB/RB/WR/TE) — prior-season production normalized within position (100 ≈ a 90th-percentile producer at that spot) and discounted for non-FBS competition, so a top back counts alongside a top quarterback. Defensive and O-line additions count as transfers but aren't box-score measurable, so they carry no impact score. The rating figure is this class's portal contribution vs. the FBS average, capped at ±2.5.

If QB1 is out (Rickie Collins)

GIE projects a -8.1 rating drop and a -32.2pp shift in playoff probability if Syracuse loses its QB1 for an extended stretch. (n=5 historical samples; pooled across recent seasons.)

Situational efficiency · 2025

FBS percentile rank
  • 3rd-down conversion 29.8% 15th — bottom tier
  • Red-zone TD rate 7.9% 11th — bottom tier
  • 4th-down aggression 41.0% 70th — strong
  • Late & close 8.2 yds/play 96th — elite

Percentile is across all FBS teams with play-by-play data for the season. "Late & close" is yards per play in Q4+ with a one-score margin — a proxy for clutch offensive performance.

More coming

Per-team pages get the full treatment in Phase 3: current rating, season projection histogram, schedule with win probabilities, and live overlays on Pylon stream days. For now, this page exists so stories and news have a permanent home as content rolls in.