South Carolina

Gamecocks · SEC

Head coach Shane Beamer Year 5 with South Carolina

Season Projection · 2026 W0

10,000 sims

5.6

Expected wins

6-6

Proj record

2 to 9

Win range (90%)

#55 (29–82)

Final rank (90%)

Make playoff

Win conference

Path to Glory

Tap a win or a loss on each pivotal game to see how the playoff probability shifts. Leave any game unset to average across both outcomes.

Make the playoff

Baseline projection.

at Alabama

Away · Sep 26
vs Georgia

Home · Nov 21
vs Texas A&M

Home · Nov 7
at Clemson

Away · Nov 28
vs Tennessee

Home · Oct 24

Pivotal games are the 5 with the largest playoff-probability swing, ranked by the model. Math: chained Bayesian log-odds update from the conditional simulation set; gets the directionally right answer but won't perfectly capture cross-game correlations until the full Monte Carlo pipeline lands.

Returning production · 2025

51 PCI

Quarterback 40% (2/5 players)
Offensive line 65% (13/20 players)
Skill (RB/WR/TE) 54% (19/35 players)
Front 7 (DL/LB) 41% (12/29 players)
Secondary 67% (14/21 players)
Special teams 50% (5/10 players)

PCI weights returning production by position group (QB/OL heaviest). 70%+ is healthy continuity; 45-70% is a normal rebuild; below 45% is a meaningful turnover.

Situational efficiency · 2025

FBS percentile rank

3rd-down conversion 30.7% 17th — bottom tier
Red-zone TD rate 14.1% 43th — below avg
4th-down aggression 44.2% 83th — strong
Late & close 2.4 yds/play 13th — bottom tier

Percentile is across all FBS teams with play-by-play data for the season. "Late & close" is yards per play in Q4+ with a one-score margin — a proxy for clutch offensive performance.

Schedule

Full 2026 slate. Tap a row for the matchup breakdown.

Latest Stories

Stories about South Carolina will appear here as they're published. Check back during the season for analysis, hot takes, and game write-ups.

More coming

Per-team pages get the full treatment in Phase 3: current rating, season projection histogram, schedule with win probabilities, and live overlays on Pylon stream days. For now, this page exists so stories and news have a permanent home as content rolls in.