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South Carolina

Gamecocks · SEC

Head coach Shane Beamer Year 6 with South Carolina

Season Projection · 2026 W0

10,000 sims
5.6
Expected wins
6-6
Proj record
3 to 9
Win range (90%)
#55 (29–81)
Final rank (90%)
0%
Make playoff
1%
Win conference

Path to Glory

Tap a win or a loss on each pivotal game to see how the playoff probability shifts. Leave any game unset to average across both outcomes.

Make the playoff

0%

Baseline projection.

  • vs Georgia
    Home · Nov 21
  • vs Texas A&M
    Home · Nov 7
  • at Alabama
    Away · Sep 26
  • at Clemson
    Away · Nov 28
  • at Arkansas
    Away · Nov 14

Pivotal games are the 5 with the largest playoff-probability swing, ranked by the model. Math: chained Bayesian log-odds update from the conditional simulation set; gets the directionally right answer but won't perfectly capture cross-game correlations until the full Monte Carlo pipeline lands.

Returning production · 2026

64 score
  • Quarterback 99% (3/4 )
  • Offensive line 32% (6/19 players)
  • Skill (RB/WR/TE) 49% (16/31 )
  • Front 7 (DL/LB) 55% (16/30 )
  • Secondary 54% (17/22 )
  • Special teams 88% (4/7 )

Share of last season's production each unit returns. Higher means more continuity: 70%+ is healthy, 45–70% a normal rebuild, under 45% a major turnover.

Portal additions · 2026

+0.1 rating

25 proven transfers in, carrying the production below from their prior school.

  • Caleb Herring DE ← Tennessee 116 impact
  • Nitro Tuggle WR ← Purdue 92 impact
  • Tomiwa Durojaiye DL ← Illinois 75 impact
  • Drew Collins DE ← Arkansas State 71 impact
  • Quay'sheed Scott DB ← Kentucky 70 impact
  • DJ Black WR ← UCF 50 impact

Impact scores offensive skill additions (QB/RB/WR/TE) — prior-season production normalized within position (100 ≈ a 90th-percentile producer at that spot) and discounted for non-FBS competition, so a top back counts alongside a top quarterback. Defensive and O-line additions count as transfers but aren't box-score measurable, so they carry no impact score. The rating figure is this class's portal contribution vs. the FBS average, capped at ±2.5.

Situational efficiency · 2025

FBS percentile rank
  • 3rd-down conversion 30.7% 17th — bottom tier
  • Red-zone TD rate 14.1% 43th — below avg
  • 4th-down aggression 44.2% 83th — strong
  • Late & close 2.4 yds/play 13th — bottom tier

Percentile is across all FBS teams with play-by-play data for the season. "Late & close" is yards per play in Q4+ with a one-score margin — a proxy for clutch offensive performance.

More coming

Per-team pages get the full treatment in Phase 3: current rating, season projection histogram, schedule with win probabilities, and live overlays on Pylon stream days. For now, this page exists so stories and news have a permanent home as content rolls in.