4thand4cast

Search the site.

Try , , or .

Powered by Pagefind

Old Dominion

Monarchs · Sun Belt

Head coach Ricky Rahne Year 6 with Old Dominion

Season Projection · 2026 W0

10,000 sims
8.2
Expected wins
8-4
Proj record
5 to 11
Win range (90%)
#46 (25–75)
Final rank (90%)
0%
Make playoff
24%
Win conference

Path to Glory

Tap a win or a loss on each pivotal game to see how the playoff probability shifts. Leave any game unset to average across both outcomes.

Make the playoff

0%

Baseline projection.

  • vs James Madison
    Home · Sep 26
  • at UConn
    Away · Nov 21
  • at Louisiana Tech
    Away · Oct 24
  • vs East Carolina
    Home · Sep 19
  • vs Norfolk State
    Home · Sep 5

Pivotal games are the 5 with the largest playoff-probability swing, ranked by the model. Math: chained Bayesian log-odds update from the conditional simulation set; gets the directionally right answer but won't perfectly capture cross-game correlations until the full Monte Carlo pipeline lands.

Returning production · 2025

50 PCI
  • Quarterback 60% (3/5 players)
  • Offensive line 55% (11/20 players)
  • Skill (RB/WR/TE) 26% (6/23 players)
  • Front 7 (DL/LB) 70% (19/27 players)
  • Secondary 42% (10/24 players)
  • Special teams 25% (2/8 players)

PCI weights returning production by position group (QB/OL heaviest). 70%+ is healthy continuity; 45-70% is a normal rebuild; below 45% is a meaningful turnover.

If QB1 is out (Colton Joseph)

GIE projects a 0.6 rating drop and a 2.3pp shift in playoff probability if Old Dominion loses its QB1 for an extended stretch. (n=1 historical samples; pooled across recent seasons.)

Situational efficiency · 2025

FBS percentile rank
  • 3rd-down conversion 42.0% 81th — strong
  • Red-zone TD rate 14.1% 43th — below avg
  • 4th-down aggression 29.9% 21th — bottom tier
  • Late & close 5.3 yds/play 56th — average

Percentile is across all FBS teams with play-by-play data for the season. "Late & close" is yards per play in Q4+ with a one-score margin — a proxy for clutch offensive performance.

More coming

Per-team pages get the full treatment in Phase 3: current rating, season projection histogram, schedule with win probabilities, and live overlays on Pylon stream days. For now, this page exists so stories and news have a permanent home as content rolls in.