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Oklahoma State

Cowboys · Big 12

Head coach Mike Gundy

Season Projection · 2026 W0

10,000 sims
2.6
Expected wins
3-6
Proj record
0 to 5
Win range (90%)
#122 (105–133)
Final rank (90%)
0%
Make playoff
0%
Win conference

Path to Glory

Tap a win or a loss on each pivotal game to see how the playoff probability shifts. Leave any game unset to average across both outcomes.

Make the playoff

0%

Baseline projection.

  • at Tulsa
    Away · Sep 5
  • at West Virginia
    Away · Sep 26
  • vs UCF
    Home · Oct 10
  • vs Colorado
    Home · Oct 24

Pivotal games are the 5 with the largest playoff-probability swing, ranked by the model. Math: chained Bayesian log-odds update from the conditional simulation set; gets the directionally right answer but won't perfectly capture cross-game correlations until the full Monte Carlo pipeline lands.

Returning production · 2025

32 PCI
  • Quarterback 20% (1/5 players)
  • Offensive line 35% (9/26 players)
  • Skill (RB/WR/TE) 31% (12/39 players)
  • Front 7 (DL/LB) 34% (12/35 players)
  • Secondary 40% (12/30 players)
  • Special teams 71% (5/7 players)

PCI weights returning production by position group (QB/OL heaviest). 70%+ is healthy continuity; 45-70% is a normal rebuild; below 45% is a meaningful turnover.

If QB1 is out (Zane Flores)

GIE projects a -5.2 rating drop and a -20.6pp shift in playoff probability if Oklahoma State loses its QB1 for an extended stretch. (n=3 historical samples; pooled across recent seasons.)

Situational efficiency · 2025

FBS percentile rank
  • 3rd-down conversion 34.3% 33th — below avg
  • Red-zone TD rate 9.6% 14th — bottom tier
  • 4th-down aggression 27.9% 15th — bottom tier
  • Late & close 6.5 yds/play 82th — strong

Percentile is across all FBS teams with play-by-play data for the season. "Late & close" is yards per play in Q4+ with a one-score margin — a proxy for clutch offensive performance.

Schedule

Full 2026 slate. Tap a row for the matchup breakdown.

Latest Stories

  • Recap

    Oklahoma State: 2025 Week 16 recap

    Oklahoma State sits at 1–11 after dropping a 20–13 home decision to Iowa State in Week 14, a result that reflects the program's broader struggles this season. The Cowboys' current rating of –15.1 places them 121st nationally, signaling…

More coming

Per-team pages get the full treatment in Phase 3: current rating, season projection histogram, schedule with win probabilities, and live overlays on Pylon stream days. For now, this page exists so stories and news have a permanent home as content rolls in.