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Colorado State

Rams · Pac-12

Head coach Jay Norvell Year 4 with Colorado State

Year-4 HCs (2015-2024) averaged -0.65 W vs SP+ expected · n=59

Season Projection · 2026 W0

10,000 sims
2.8
Expected wins
3-7
Proj record
0 to 6
Win range (90%)
#123 (106–134)
Final rank (90%)
0%
Make playoff
0%
Win conference

Path to Glory

Tap a win or a loss on each pivotal game to see how the playoff probability shifts. Leave any game unset to average across both outcomes.

Make the playoff

0%

Baseline projection.

  • vs Wyoming
    Home · Sep 5
  • vs Southern Utah
    Home · Sep 12
  • vs Oregon State
    Home · Oct 3
  • vs Boise State
    Home · Nov 7

Pivotal games are the 5 with the largest playoff-probability swing, ranked by the model. Math: chained Bayesian log-odds update from the conditional simulation set; gets the directionally right answer but won't perfectly capture cross-game correlations until the full Monte Carlo pipeline lands.

Returning production · 2025

60 PCI
  • Quarterback 67% (4/6 players)
  • Offensive line 71% (10/14 players)
  • Skill (RB/WR/TE) 48% (15/31 players)
  • Front 7 (DL/LB) 52% (15/29 players)
  • Secondary 59% (13/22 players)
  • Special teams 38% (3/8 players)

PCI weights returning production by position group (QB/OL heaviest). 70%+ is healthy continuity; 45-70% is a normal rebuild; below 45% is a meaningful turnover.

If QB1 is out (Jackson Brousseau)

GIE projects a -0.2 rating drop and a -0.9pp shift in playoff probability if Colorado State loses its QB1 for an extended stretch. (n=3 historical samples; pooled across recent seasons.)

Situational efficiency · 2025

FBS percentile rank
  • 3rd-down conversion 32.7% 27th — below avg
  • Red-zone TD rate 21.4% 92th — elite
  • 4th-down aggression 36.4% 50th — average
  • Late & close 4.6 yds/play 33th — below avg

Percentile is across all FBS teams with play-by-play data for the season. "Late & close" is yards per play in Q4+ with a one-score margin — a proxy for clutch offensive performance.

Schedule

Full 2026 slate. Tap a row for the matchup breakdown.

Latest Stories

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    Colorado State: 2025 Week 16 recap

    Colorado State sits at 2–10 after a 42–21 home loss to Air Force in Week 14, a result that underscores the Rams' struggles this season. The team's GIE rating of –15.6 places them at 124th nationally, reflecting a roster that has…

More coming

Per-team pages get the full treatment in Phase 3: current rating, season projection histogram, schedule with win probabilities, and live overlays on Pylon stream days. For now, this page exists so stories and news have a permanent home as content rolls in.