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Army

Black Knights · American Athletic

Head coach Jeff Monken

Season Projection · 2026 W0

10,000 sims
6.3
Expected wins
6-6
Proj record
3 to 10
Win range (90%)
#70 (42–96)
Final rank (90%)
0%
Make playoff
3%
Win conference

Path to Glory

Tap a win or a loss on each pivotal game to see how the playoff probability shifts. Leave any game unset to average across both outcomes.

Make the playoff

0%

Baseline projection.

  • at Memphis
    Away · Oct 31
  • vs East Carolina
    Home · Nov 21
  • vs Tulane
    Home · Oct 10
  • vs Navy
    Neutral site · Dec 12
  • vs South Florida
    Home · Sep 12

Pivotal games are the 5 with the largest playoff-probability swing, ranked by the model. Math: chained Bayesian log-odds update from the conditional simulation set; gets the directionally right answer but won't perfectly capture cross-game correlations until the full Monte Carlo pipeline lands.

Returning production · 2025

61 PCI
  • Quarterback 57% (4/7 players)
  • Offensive line 73% (24/33 players)
  • Skill (RB/WR/TE) 50% (26/52 players)
  • Front 7 (DL/LB) 60% (29/48 players)
  • Secondary 64% (18/28 players)
  • Special teams 79% (11/14 players)

PCI weights returning production by position group (QB/OL heaviest). 70%+ is healthy continuity; 45-70% is a normal rebuild; below 45% is a meaningful turnover.

If QB1 is out (Cale Hellums)

GIE projects a -0.2 rating drop and a -0.7pp shift in playoff probability if Army loses its QB1 for an extended stretch. (n=1 historical samples; pooled across recent seasons.)

Situational efficiency · 2025

FBS percentile rank
  • 3rd-down conversion 42.0% 81th — strong
  • Red-zone TD rate 14.5% 48th — average
  • 4th-down aggression 64.0% 98th — elite
  • Late & close 5.2 yds/play 54th — average

Percentile is across all FBS teams with play-by-play data for the season. "Late & close" is yards per play in Q4+ with a one-score margin — a proxy for clutch offensive performance.

More coming

Per-team pages get the full treatment in Phase 3: current rating, season projection histogram, schedule with win probabilities, and live overlays on Pylon stream days. For now, this page exists so stories and news have a permanent home as content rolls in.