Wisconsin
Badgers · Big Ten
Year-4 HCs (2015-2024) averaged -0.65 W vs. preseason expectation
Season Projection · 2026 W0
10,000 simsPath to Glory
Tap a win or a loss on each pivotal game to see how the playoff probability shifts. Leave any game unset to average across both outcomes.
Make the playoff
0%
Baseline projection.
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vs Michigan StateHome · Oct 3 -
vs RutgersHome · Nov 7 -
at MarylandAway · Nov 14
Pivotal games are the 5 with the largest playoff-probability swing, ranked by the model. Math: chained Bayesian log-odds update from the conditional simulation set; gets the directionally right answer but won't perfectly capture cross-game correlations until the full Monte Carlo pipeline lands.
Returning production · 2026
- Quarterback 57% (2/5 )
- Offensive line 57% (12/21 players)
- Skill (RB/WR/TE) 33% (14/28 )
- Front 7 (DL/LB) 40% (21/36 )
- Secondary 16% (8/18 )
- Special teams 56% (3/8 )
Share of last season's production each unit returns. Higher means more continuity: 70%+ is healthy, 45–70% a normal rebuild, under 45% a major turnover.
Portal additions · 2026
30 proven transfers in, carrying the production below from their prior school.
- Colton Joseph QB ← Old Dominion 150 impact
- Abu Sama III RB ← Iowa State 105 impact
- Junior Poyser DL ← Buffalo 105 impact
- Javan Robinson CB ← Arizona State 99 impact
- Jaylon Domingeaux WR ← SE Louisiana 78 impact
- Marvin Burks Jr. S ← Missouri 77 impact
Impact scores offensive skill additions (QB/RB/WR/TE) — prior-season production normalized within position (100 ≈ a 90th-percentile producer at that spot) and discounted for non-FBS competition, so a top back counts alongside a top quarterback. Defensive and O-line additions count as transfers but aren't box-score measurable, so they carry no impact score. The rating figure is this class's portal contribution vs. the FBS average, capped at ±2.5.
GIE projects a 9.0 rating drop and a 36.0pp shift in playoff probability if Wisconsin loses its QB1 for an extended stretch. (n=4 historical samples; pooled across recent seasons.)
Situational efficiency · 2025
FBS percentile rank- 3rd-down conversion 29.0% 13th — bottom tier
- Red-zone TD rate 17.6% 76th — strong
- 4th-down aggression 35.7% 48th — average
- Late & close 2.6 yds/play 14th — bottom tier
Percentile is across all FBS teams with play-by-play data for the season. "Late & close" is yards per play in Q4+ with a one-score margin — a proxy for clutch offensive performance.
Schedule
Full 2026 slate. Tap a row for the matchup breakdown.
- Wk 1Sep 6
vsNotre Dame· neutralFBS Independents3%Win prob - Wk 2Sep 12vsWestern Illinois—
- Wk 3Sep 19
vsEastern MichiganMid-American83%Win prob - Wk 4Sep 26
atPenn StateBig Ten4%Win prob - Wk 5Oct 3
vsMichigan StateBig Ten55%Win prob - Wk 7Oct 17
atUCLABig Ten56%Win prob - Wk 8Oct 24
vsUSCBig Ten9%Win prob - Wk 9Oct 31
atIowaBig Ten3%Win prob - Wk 10Nov 7
vsRutgersBig Ten41%Win prob - Wk 11Nov 14
atMarylandBig Ten28%Win prob - Wk 12Nov 21
atPurdueBig Ten48%Win prob - Wk 13Nov 28
vsMinnesotaBig Ten40%Win prob
Latest Stories
More coming
Per-team pages get the full treatment in Phase 3: current rating, season projection histogram, schedule with win probabilities, and live overlays on Pylon stream days. For now, this page exists so stories and news have a permanent home as content rolls in.