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Wisconsin

Badgers · Big Ten

Head coach Luke Fickell Year 4 with Wisconsin

Year-4 HCs (2015-2024) averaged -0.65 W vs. preseason expectation

Season Projection · 2026 W0

10,000 sims
4.7
Expected wins
5-6
Proj record
2 to 8
Win range (90%)
#89 (67–111)
Final rank (90%)
0%
Make playoff
0%
Win conference

Path to Glory

Tap a win or a loss on each pivotal game to see how the playoff probability shifts. Leave any game unset to average across both outcomes.

Make the playoff

0%

Baseline projection.

  • vs Michigan State
    Home · Oct 3
  • vs Rutgers
    Home · Nov 7
  • at Maryland
    Away · Nov 14

Pivotal games are the 5 with the largest playoff-probability swing, ranked by the model. Math: chained Bayesian log-odds update from the conditional simulation set; gets the directionally right answer but won't perfectly capture cross-game correlations until the full Monte Carlo pipeline lands.

Returning production · 2026

45 score
  • Quarterback 57% (2/5 )
  • Offensive line 57% (12/21 players)
  • Skill (RB/WR/TE) 33% (14/28 )
  • Front 7 (DL/LB) 40% (21/36 )
  • Secondary 16% (8/18 )
  • Special teams 56% (3/8 )

Share of last season's production each unit returns. Higher means more continuity: 70%+ is healthy, 45–70% a normal rebuild, under 45% a major turnover.

Portal additions · 2026

+1.2 rating

30 proven transfers in, carrying the production below from their prior school.

  • Colton Joseph QB ← Old Dominion 150 impact
  • Abu Sama III RB ← Iowa State 105 impact
  • Junior Poyser DL ← Buffalo 105 impact
  • Javan Robinson CB ← Arizona State 99 impact
  • Jaylon Domingeaux WR ← SE Louisiana 78 impact
  • Marvin Burks Jr. S ← Missouri 77 impact

Impact scores offensive skill additions (QB/RB/WR/TE) — prior-season production normalized within position (100 ≈ a 90th-percentile producer at that spot) and discounted for non-FBS competition, so a top back counts alongside a top quarterback. Defensive and O-line additions count as transfers but aren't box-score measurable, so they carry no impact score. The rating figure is this class's portal contribution vs. the FBS average, capped at ±2.5.

If QB1 is out (Hunter Simmons)

GIE projects a 9.0 rating drop and a 36.0pp shift in playoff probability if Wisconsin loses its QB1 for an extended stretch. (n=4 historical samples; pooled across recent seasons.)

Situational efficiency · 2025

FBS percentile rank
  • 3rd-down conversion 29.0% 13th — bottom tier
  • Red-zone TD rate 17.6% 76th — strong
  • 4th-down aggression 35.7% 48th — average
  • Late & close 2.6 yds/play 14th — bottom tier

Percentile is across all FBS teams with play-by-play data for the season. "Late & close" is yards per play in Q4+ with a one-score margin — a proxy for clutch offensive performance.

More coming

Per-team pages get the full treatment in Phase 3: current rating, season projection histogram, schedule with win probabilities, and live overlays on Pylon stream days. For now, this page exists so stories and news have a permanent home as content rolls in.