Wisconsin

Badgers · Big Ten

Head coach Luke Fickell Year 3 with Wisconsin

Year-3 HCs (2015-2024) averaged -0.10 W vs SP+ expected · n=21

Season Projection · 2026 W0

10,000 sims

4.6

Expected wins

5-6

Proj record

2 to 8

Win range (90%)

#91 (68–113)

Final rank (90%)

Make playoff

Win conference

Path to Glory

Tap a win or a loss on each pivotal game to see how the playoff probability shifts. Leave any game unset to average across both outcomes.

Make the playoff

Baseline projection.

vs Michigan State

Home · Oct 3
vs Rutgers

Home · Nov 7
at Maryland

Away · Nov 14

Pivotal games are the 5 with the largest playoff-probability swing, ranked by the model. Math: chained Bayesian log-odds update from the conditional simulation set; gets the directionally right answer but won't perfectly capture cross-game correlations until the full Monte Carlo pipeline lands.

Returning production · 2025

48 PCI

Quarterback 20% (1/5 players)
Offensive line 75% (15/20 players)
Skill (RB/WR/TE) 58% (19/33 players)
Front 7 (DL/LB) 61% (19/31 players)
Secondary 40% (8/20 players)
Special teams 50% (5/10 players)

PCI weights returning production by position group (QB/OL heaviest). 70%+ is healthy continuity; 45-70% is a normal rebuild; below 45% is a meaningful turnover.

If QB1 is out (Hunter Simmons)

GIE projects a 9.0 rating drop and a 36.0pp shift in playoff probability if Wisconsin loses its QB1 for an extended stretch. (n=4 historical samples; pooled across recent seasons.)

Situational efficiency · 2025

FBS percentile rank

3rd-down conversion 29.0% 13th — bottom tier
Red-zone TD rate 17.6% 76th — strong
4th-down aggression 35.7% 48th — average
Late & close 2.6 yds/play 14th — bottom tier

Percentile is across all FBS teams with play-by-play data for the season. "Late & close" is yards per play in Q4+ with a one-score margin — a proxy for clutch offensive performance.

Schedule

Full 2026 slate. Tap a row for the matchup breakdown.

Latest Stories

Stories about Wisconsin will appear here as they're published. Check back during the season for analysis, hot takes, and game write-ups.

More coming

Per-team pages get the full treatment in Phase 3: current rating, season projection histogram, schedule with win probabilities, and live overlays on Pylon stream days. For now, this page exists so stories and news have a permanent home as content rolls in.