2026 Week 4 · Conference game
Wisconsin at Penn State
Saturday, September 26, 2026 · 9:00 PM UTC
Beaver Stadium
Wisconsin
Big Ten
- Record
- 2-1
- Rating
- 5.1
- National rank
- 56
- Proj. wins
- 6.1
- Playoff prob.
- 0%
Penn State
Big Ten
- Record
- 3-0
- Rating
- 19.1
- National rank
- 12
- Proj. wins
- 8.8
- Playoff prob.
- 50%
GIE win probability
Headline numbers below. The 90% confidence band reflects rating uncertainty (±1.5 points per side); the model isn't claiming precision down to the percentage point.
Wisconsin
12%
Penn State
88%
Penn State 90% CI: 84% – 91% Δ rating 14.0
Penn State is the model's favorite at 88%. Wisconsin has a 12% path. Home-field adjustment of +2.0 rating points baked in for Penn State — venue-specific learned value (n=65 games).
Style fit
How each offense matches up against the opposite defense. Higher = the offense is expected to do well; mismatches show up here.
Wisconsin offense
34 / 100
Style-neutral matchup
Penn State offense
33 / 100
Style-neutral matchup
Weather at kickoff
Conditions
Overcast
Temperature
58°F
Precipitation
2%
Wind
3 mph
Game info
- Kickoff
- Saturday, September 26, 2026 · 9:00 PM UTC
- Venue
- Beaver Stadium
- Conference game
- Yes
- Neutral site
- No