2026 Week 5 · Conference game
Michigan State at Wisconsin
Saturday, October 3, 2026 · 4:30 PM UTC
Camp Randall Stadium
Michigan State
Big Ten
- Record
- 2-1
- Rating
- 2.3
- National rank
- 65
- Proj. wins
- 6.1
- Playoff prob.
- 0%
Wisconsin
Big Ten
- Record
- 2-1
- Rating
- 5.1
- National rank
- 56
- Proj. wins
- 6.1
- Playoff prob.
- 0%
GIE win probability
Headline numbers below. The 90% confidence band reflects rating uncertainty (±1.5 points per side); the model isn't claiming precision down to the percentage point.
Michigan State
35%
Wisconsin
65%
Wisconsin 90% CI: 56% – 73% Δ rating 2.8
Wisconsin is the model's favorite at 65%. Michigan State has a 35% path. Home-field adjustment of +2.1 rating points baked in for Wisconsin — venue-specific learned value (n=63 games).
Style fit
How each offense matches up against the opposite defense. Higher = the offense is expected to do well; mismatches show up here.
Michigan State offense
35 / 100
Style-neutral matchup
Wisconsin offense
38 / 100
Style-neutral matchup
Weather at kickoff
Conditions
Overcast
Temperature
67°F
Precipitation
18%
Wind
12 mph
Game info
- Kickoff
- Saturday, October 3, 2026 · 4:30 PM UTC
- Venue
- Camp Randall Stadium
- Conference game
- Yes
- Neutral site
- No