2026 Week 5 · Conference game
Michigan State at Wisconsin
Friday, October 2, 2026 · 11:00 PM CDT
Camp Randall Stadium
Michigan State
Big Ten
- Record
- 0-0
- Rating
- -3.4
- National rank
- 82
- Proj. wins
- 4.2
- Playoff prob.
- 0%
Wisconsin
Big Ten
- Record
- 0-0
- Rating
- -4.4
- National rank
- 85
- Proj. wins
- 4.6
- Playoff prob.
- 0%
GIE win probability
Headline numbers below. The 90% confidence band reflects rating uncertainty (±1.5 points per side); the model isn't claiming precision down to the percentage point.
Michigan State
47%
Wisconsin
53%
Wisconsin 90% CI: 44% – 63% Δ rating 1.0
Wisconsin is the model's favorite at 53%. Michigan State has a 47% path. Home-field adjustment of +2.1 rating points baked in for Wisconsin — venue-specific learned value (n=63 games).
Style fit
How each offense matches up against the opposite defense. Higher = the offense is expected to do well; mismatches show up here.
Michigan State offense
35 / 100
Style-neutral matchup
Wisconsin offense
38 / 100
Style-neutral matchup
Weather at kickoff
Forecast not yet available — Open-Meteo provides a 16-day window. Check back closer to kickoff.
Game info
- Kickoff
- Friday, October 2, 2026 · 11:00 PM CDT
- Venue
- Camp Randall Stadium
- Conference game
- Yes
- Neutral site
- No