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Eastern Michigan

Eagles · Mid-American

Head coach Chris Creighton

Season Projection · 2026 W0

10,000 sims
4.6
Expected wins
5-7
Proj record
2 to 8
Win range (90%)
#119 (98–133)
Final rank (90%)
0%
Make playoff
1%
Win conference

Path to Glory

Tap a win or a loss on each pivotal game to see how the playoff probability shifts. Leave any game unset to average across both outcomes.

Make the playoff

0%

Baseline projection.

  • vs San José State
    Home · Sep 4
  • vs Sacramento State
    Home · Aug 29
  • vs Lindenwood
    Home · Sep 26
  • at Akron
    Away · Oct 10

Pivotal games are the 5 with the largest playoff-probability swing, ranked by the model. Math: chained Bayesian log-odds update from the conditional simulation set; gets the directionally right answer but won't perfectly capture cross-game correlations until the full Monte Carlo pipeline lands.

Returning production · 2025

51 PCI
  • Quarterback 50% (2/4 players)
  • Offensive line 57% (12/21 players)
  • Skill (RB/WR/TE) 47% (14/30 players)
  • Front 7 (DL/LB) 48% (15/31 players)
  • Secondary 57% (13/23 players)
  • Special teams 40% (4/10 players)

PCI weights returning production by position group (QB/OL heaviest). 70%+ is healthy continuity; 45-70% is a normal rebuild; below 45% is a meaningful turnover.

Situational efficiency · 2025

FBS percentile rank
  • 3rd-down conversion 35.4% 39th — below avg
  • Red-zone TD rate 15.4% 57th — average
  • 4th-down aggression 35.5% 47th — average
  • Late & close 5.3 yds/play 56th — average

Percentile is across all FBS teams with play-by-play data for the season. "Late & close" is yards per play in Q4+ with a one-score margin — a proxy for clutch offensive performance.

Schedule

Full 2026 slate. Tap a row for the matchup breakdown.

Latest Stories

  • Recap

    Eastern Michigan: 2025 Week 16 recap

    Eastern Michigan sits at 4–8 after a 31–21 loss to Western Michigan in Week 14, dropping the Eagles to a rating of –14.7 and a ranking of 119th. The in-state rivalry defeat underscored what's been a difficult season: the offense generated…

More coming

Per-team pages get the full treatment in Phase 3: current rating, season projection histogram, schedule with win probabilities, and live overlays on Pylon stream days. For now, this page exists so stories and news have a permanent home as content rolls in.